The external background on Saturday morning can be called moderately positive. Oil prices ended the week higher, and sentiment on global stock markets improved largely due to corporate news from the US high-tech sector.
Trading on the US stock exchanges ended yesterday with an increase in the three main indexes by 0.4-2%, led by the high-tech Nasdaq. During the session, the S&P 500 indicator approached the resistance of 5,115 points (the average Bollinger band of the daily chart), overcoming which may portend a return to the peak of the current year of 5,264 points (also the upper Bollinger band). The market was energized by optimism after strong reports and forecasts from Microsoft, Alphabet and Snap. At the same time, statistics showed that the growth rate of the basic index of price consumption in March remained at the level of 2.8% yoy, while the main index accelerated from 2.5% to 2.7% yoy, higher than forecasts. On a monthly basis, the figures increased by 0.3%, as in February. The data are a reminder of the risks of the Fed keeping interest rates high in the coming months.
Futures for the S&P 500 index are not traded in the morning. The US market ended the week with an increase of 0.7-4.2% on the three main indices, trying to return to short-term growth. Next week, investors will be waiting for the results of the Fed meeting, as well as the key report on the country's labor market for April.
Trading in Europe ended with an increase in the index the day before Euro Stoxx 50 by 1.4%. During the week, the indicator added about 1.8% along with the US stock exchanges, trying to make up for losses after the correction. Next week, we can note the publication of preliminary estimates of consumer inflation in Germany and the eurozone for April.
Trading in Asia on Friday ended with mostly positive dynamics. Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.85% after the neutral outcome of the Bank of Japan meeting. The Australian ASX 200 lost 1.4% due to corporate news. China's indices rose by 1.2-2.1%. Hong Kong The Hang Seng gained 2.1%, ending the week at its highest since November 2023, above the medium-term downtrend line. Next week, China is waiting for the publication of business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors for April.
The nearest futures for Brent and WTI crude oil rose within 0.5% yesterday, and rose by 0.6-2.4% over the week, ending it below the short-term resistances of $88.90 and $84, respectively (the average Bollinger bands of the daily charts). Due to the easing of tensions between Iran and Israel, uncertainty prevails in the oil market, although quotes were able to retreat from the area of local lows of $85.80 and $81, generally maintaining the main bullish trend. In the coming days, prices will be waiting for macroeconomic and geopolitical signals.
The Moscow Exchange and RTS indices rose 0.3% and 0.69%, respectively, the day before. At the height of the quarterly reporting and dividend news season, the ruble indicator is holding slightly below the resistance of 3,455 points. The dollar RTS has updated its maximum since September 2022, rising to 1,190 points due to the further strengthening of the ruble.
The ruble in the morning on the Moscow Exchange maintains its growth rate and rises within 0.5% against the dollar, euro and Chinese yuan, located at 91.70 rubles, 98.15 rubles and 12.57 rubles, respectively. The Russian currency has been at highs since March and February after the tightening of the signal of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation following yesterday's meeting, when the interest rate level was maintained at 16%.
At the beginning of the trading day, the Russian stock market may try to grow within the framework of the main bullish trend and the positive closing of the week on world exchanges. In general, optimism in the ruble segment in the short term, however, remains restrained due to the prospect of a longer period of maintaining high interest rates in the Russian Federation, which may increase even more under the scenario of accelerating inflation. However, Russian stocks, taking into account dividend yields and the growth of the quotations themselves, remain attractive at least until the closing of the dividend registers, which will take place in May, June and July.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital, https://veles-capital.ru/analytics /
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