Russia's Economic Development and Trade Ministry has drawn up 3 basic scenarios of the RF economy development in 2005, Economic Development Minister German Gref said.

The first variant (pessimistic) sets forth sharp worsening of the foreign market situation with the oil prices dn to $20-$23 per barrel. In this case, the GDP growth may go dn to 4%-5% on year.

Under the second variant (conservative), the oil prices pace will be rather high ($26 per barrel). However, if the limits in export pipeline development and raw materials source are not cleared in the mid.-term, the economic development rates may slid even with favorable market environment. So it is necessary to widen the opportunities concerning the exports in the raw material sphere.

The third variant (basic) has been calculated with regard to the annual average price of $28 per barrel. This variant is taken to draw up parameters of the 2005 federal budget. The GDP growth is expected at 28.4% for the period of 2004-2007.

Economic development growth is estimated at 6.3% on year in 2005-2007. Domestic demand will annually gain 8%-8.5% on year, the exports will narrow from 9.5% to 5%-6% on year. Investments growth is forecasted at around 10%. Annual foreign investments are estimated at $12-$16 bln.

"AK&M", 19/08/2004 11:42