The decision of US President Donald Trump to postpone for 90 days the introduction of increased trade duties against countries, with the exception of China, has brought positive news to global markets. Oil began to bounce back, which is the most important thing for ruble assets. However, the growth of gold and its rewriting of historical highs suggests that fears are still high, and if any negative reason appears, one can expect another downward blow for almost all market assets.
The Russian stock market has also started to rebound. On Friday, it grew by 2.4% according to the Moscow Exchange Index and confidently closed above 2800, significantly improving the technical picture. The upswing continued both on Friday evening and this trading weekend. Therefore, today we will open with an upward gap, which, by the way, will need to be closed.
So far, there has been a slight decline in the morning, but the market may well turn up. However, as the Index approaches 2900, we expect a relatively strong profit taking – those who managed to buy them at the bottom will start selling securities. This desire will be especially strong among investors who have opened margin positions.
Aeroflot shares have been among the growth leaders in recent days, where flights to the United States are expected to resume. But we would not rely on this driver for one simple reason – who should I take to the States if there are practically no business ties between the two countries, and it is incredibly difficult to get a visa to the United States?
For five days in a row, including this morning, Polyus has been growing, recouping the rise in prices of its products on the world market. The paper is entering a resistance zone and is very close to historical highs. It is worth closing margin longs here, and continuing to hold the main volume. We don't like the idea of a Pole short at all.
Airplane shares have turned up, but the PEAK continues to maintain a downward trend. If the general rise in the market continues, it is worth carefully monitoring the peak, the company's shares may at any moment rush to catch up with the market. We would have fixed the "plane" in the region of 1300 rubles. In general, we continue to look negatively at developers and believe that these securities can only be used for speculative trading in both directions.
On Friday, the ruble strengthened by 2.4% against the yuan. This looks somewhat strange given the cheap oil, which will inevitably lead to a decrease in the inflow of foreign currency into the country over the next month or two. However, the yuan-ruble pair has confidently broken down the 11.4–11.8 side corridor and is looking at the target of the fall - the 10 mark.
We are not very sure that the pair will reach this mark. However, in the current picture, it would be wrong to buy the yuan against the ruble. After the breakdown of support, the shorts should be opened very carefully with mandatory short stops. We are waiting for developments in the pair, it is quite possible that the breakdown will turn out to be false.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
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