BEAC is ready to decline

Alexey Antonov, ALOR BROKER 30 March 2023 10:51

Sberbank shares again showed the best result among the most liquid securities yesterday, rising by 1.85%. The auction closed 2 rubles below the 220 mark, which is an intermediate growth target. The technical overbought of the paper is huge. All this suggests that a correction in the shares of the Savings Bank may begin at any minute. This does not mean at all that the paper has ceased to be investment-interesting. We are still waiting to see her for at least 240 rubles. But this is not the limit of growth.

Lenta reported weakly yesterday, confirming the onset of difficult times for retailers. Like other networks, the company has begun a partial transition to the lowest price segment. It seems that the main struggle for the buyer will unfold there. In general, we believe that retail is becoming uninteresting for investment, the marginality of the business is very low. And this will continue until the growth of the standard of living of the population begins.

The oil industry has largely recovered from Western sanctions. For the breakthrough of oil companies' shares, oil needs to leave above $80, while "black gold" is trading around yesterday's close at $77.5 per barrel.

Ferrous metallurgists grew strongly yesterday. And we look at them positively, but the growth of the sector's securities promises to be volatile.

Norilsk Nickel is trying to gain a foothold above 15 thousand rubles. If he succeeds, then the paper will open the road for 17 thousand rubles. For such a movement, it would be nice to get some kind of driver, for example, good news on dividends. But they are not there yet, and the paper risks continuing to remain weaker than the market.

The reduction of fears about the development of the banking crisis in the West has put gold sideways. But while the quotes are above the support zone of $ 1930-$1940 per ounce. Sooner rather than later, another wave of new money being thrown into the economy will cause an increase in inflation in the United States, and capital will again seek protection in gold.

The ruble continues to gradually become cheaper. It is very likely that the trend of depreciation of the ruble by about half a percent a day will continue until the exchange rate begins to approach the 80 mark.

Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER 

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