Important events of the day
China: The trade balance in July is 06:00 Moscow time.USA: change in the number of people employed in non-agriculture. The time in July is 15:30 Moscow time.
USA: unemployment rate in July – 15:30 Moscow time.
USA: salary dynamics in July – 15:30 Moscow time.
USA: inflation expectations from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in July – 18:00 Moscow time.
In the spotlight
Negative sentiment prevailed on the global market on Thursday. Investors are increasingly doubting the prospects of the United States' promised early resumption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz in full. In addition, the outgoing reports could not be called strong, which, among other things, adjusted Dow Jones from a historical high. The Russian market went down yesterday, although securities were growing at the beginning of trading (including on Wednesday evening data on weekly price declines in the country). News about new sanctions from the UK could put pressure on a number of assets, but the overall decline in securities was rather within the framework of a temporary correction. At the same time, yesterday's operational data from the Bank of Russia indicated only a moderate slowdown in money supply growth in July.
Today, the global market will focus on the publication of July data on the US labor market. Unexpectedly weak employment figures can ease investors' fears of a Fed rate hike, which will support risky assets. In Russia, Friday will be marked only by individual corporate events.
Oil and the ruble
Oil prices rose significantly yesterday. Now the prospects for the imminent full-fledged opening of the Strait of Hormuz have begun to look dimmer. In particular, the draft agreements between Iran and Oman include a ban on the passage of U.S. and Israeli vessels, as well as high tariffs and fines for violations. Today, Brent futures are trading at $83.6/bbl. Without easing Iran's demands, it will be difficult for quotations to return below $80/bbl.
The ruble continued to weaken on Thursday. Yesterday's recovery in oil prices has not yet provided significant support to the Russian currency. Today, the CNYRU exchange rate is at 12.07 rubles/yuan. Starting today, the August, higher purchases of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation begin within the framework of the budget rule. Against this background, the exchange rate is still at risk of going above 12.10 rubles/yuan again, but in general, the increase in purchases in the future will be offset by higher sales of foreign currency by Russian exporters.
Viktor Grigoriev, Chief Analyst at Bank Saint Petersburg.
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