Important events of the day
USA: speech by the head of the Federal Reserve – 15:30 Moscow timeRussia: commentary on monetary conditions from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in September
Russia: monitoring of industry financial flows from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in September
USA: statements by the Fed representatives
In the spotlight
On Wednesday, the global market had a predominantly upward trend. The minutes of the Fed meeting reminded investors of the prospects for further rate cuts in the United States, but in general, the "minutes" did little to surprise the players. The Russian market fell sharply yesterday amid a number of geopolitical statements and individual corporate events. As a result, the Moscow Exchange index dropped to its lowest level since December 20. At the same time, the data released in the evening indicated a moderate decrease in the volume of currency purchases in September, as well as an acceleration in weekly inflation from 0.13% to 0.23% n/a. In annual terms, the price growth in the country accelerated from 8.0% to 8.1% YoY. The marked increase in the price level should not be a surprise to the regulator, but maintaining the same high rate of price growth in the coming weeks will still be an argument for a "pause" at the October meeting.
Today, investors in the world will evaluate the statements of the Fed representatives. The focus will be on the speech of the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell. In Russia, today will be marked by the publication of materials by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation – a commentary on the transmission mechanism will show how the actual monetary conditions have tightened by the end of September, and monitoring of industry financial flows from the regulator will provide operational estimates of the degree of cooling of the Russian economy.
Oil and ruble
Oil prices were rising yesterday. Quotes showed such dynamics even against the background of statements by the US president about steps to de-escalate in the Middle East. Today, Brent futures are trading at $66.4/bbl. In general, black gold may linger near $66-67/bbl for now.
The ruble strengthened significantly on Wednesday. The market has not yet been in a hurry to show high demand for the currency, even on the last day before the end of the long holidays in China. Today, the CNYRU exchange rate is at 11.36 rubles/yuan. Other EM currencies are mostly weakening against the US dollar in the morning. Taking into account today's increased sales of the Central Bank's currency, the exchange rate is still likely to linger near 10.30-10.45 rubles/yuan.
Viktor Grigoriev, Chief Analyst at Bank Saint Petersburg.
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