Important events of the day
Russia: The press conference of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is at 15:00 Moscow time.
USA: inflation in August – 15:30 Moscow time.
Russia: inflation in August is at 19:00 Moscow time.
Russia: The updated estimate of GDP for the second quarter is at 19:00 Moscow time.
In the spotlight
On Thursday, the global market was overwhelmed by a wave of risk-off sentiment. A sharp rise in oil prices and slightly higher-than-expected August growth rates in producer prices in the United States have driven yields on ten-year "treasuries" to their highest levels since the end of October 2023. Assets on Russian trading platforms grew steadily on Thursday, largely due to the rise in the cost of raw materials. At the same time, the day was marked locally by the publication of September data showing an increase in price expectations of enterprises to the highest values since January.
On Friday, global investors will focus on August US inflation data. These numbers will be key before the Fed meeting on Wednesday. For the Russian market, the central event of the day will be the decision of the Bank of Russia on the key interest rate. Apparently, the Central Bank, adhering to a conservative position, will keep the rate at the same level. However, there are still chances to see -25 bp if the regulator decides to give less weight to temporary pro-inflationary supply-side factors. At the same time, after the meeting and after the end of the trading day, Rosstat will release figures on inflation in August and data on GDP production in the second quarter.
Oil and the ruble
On Thursday, oil prices rose especially rapidly. The expansion of hostilities and the decline in OPEC production estimates significantly accelerated the growth of quotations. Today, Brent futures are trading at $105.5/bbl. In general, at current levels, it is worth preparing for new actions on the part of the United States. At the same time, as usually happens, the news may come out on the weekend.
On Thursday, the Russian ruble continued to strengthen actively as part of the correction. A significant support factor was the rising oil prices. Today, the USDRUB exchange rate is at 12.57 rubles/yuan. In the absence of any special surprises from the meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, this week's exchange rate may end near 12.45-12.65 rubles/yuan.
Viktor Grigoriev, Chief Analyst at Bank Saint Petersburg.
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