Important events of the day
Russia: The unemployment rate in July is 19:00 Moscow time.
Russia: retail sales in July — 19:00 Moscow time.
Russia: the news index of business activity from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in August.
Russia: analytical review of the Banking Sector from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the second quarter.
In the spotlight
Negative sentiment prevailed on global markets on Tuesday. The escalation in the Middle East is making investors increasingly expect a Fed rate hike on September 16. Against this background, the yields of ten-year US Treasury securities were currently updating their maximum since the fall of 2023, and the dollar was strengthening globally. The Russian market grew moderately on Tuesday following the results of the main trading session, but late in the evening it went into negative territory amid negative geopolitical statements. At the same time, the macro-aquatic ones were mixed. On the one hand, representatives of the Central Bank in the bulletin "What the trends say" gave a number of harsh signals, noting the secondary effects on inflation from the fuel crisis. On the other hand, yesterday's August data showed a drop in the manufacturing PMI in Russia to the lowest level since May.
Investors in the world will continue to follow the news around Iran today. The August ADP estimates on employment in the United States will also deserve attention. In Russia, players will evaluate further geopolitical statements, but a number of macro-water ones will also be released today. In particular, Rosstat will publish in the evening not only the traditional weekly inflation figures, but also the July report "Socio-economic situation of Russia." In it, the most important data will be on the labor market, which is a stable, rather than a temporary factor affecting inflation.
Oil and the ruble
Oil prices rose sharply in the late afternoon yesterday when the United States launched strikes against Iran, to which the country retaliated. As a result, Brent futures are already trading at $94.9/bbl today. Given the recent statements by the US president about the lack of interest in negotiations, there are risks of further oil growth above $96/bbl.
On Tuesday, the ruble reversed and weakened significantly, regaining all of Monday's gains. Neither high oil prices nor some positive geopolitical news are yet enough to sustain the strengthening of the ruble. The pressure from imports to import fuel and replenish stocks remains. Today, the CNYRU exchange rate is at 12.88 rubles/yuan. Against the background of sharply rising oil prices overnight, the exchange rate may attempt to go below 12.85 rubles/yuan, but so far the probability of a rollback looks very high.
Viktor Grigoriev, Chief Analyst at Bank Saint Petersburg.
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