Important events of the day
USA: change in the number of people employed in non-agriculture. the sector in August is at 15:30 Moscow time.
USA: unemployment rate in August – 15:30 Moscow time.
USA: average salary dynamics in August – 15:30 Moscow time.
USA: the weekly number of oil drilling rigs is 20:00 Moscow time.
In the spotlight
Global markets showed an upward trend on Thursday. The assets were supported by soft statements by a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve K. Waller's. He noted that the first signs of disinflation are appearing, and he personally is inclined to vote for the "hold" at the September 16 meeting. The Russian market also grew significantly yesterday, primarily in the afternoon. Investors played back the news from the WEF: statements about individual projects and agreements (for example, about the Power of Siberia–2) and statements by a number of individuals from business and the Government regarding the prospects for lowering the key interest rate.
On Friday, global markets will evaluate the August data on the US labor market. Employment statistics will be extremely important in the context of the Fed's decisions at the meeting in mid-September. Russian investors will be waiting for details regarding possible negotiations with the participation of the United States - representatives of Ukraine announced the prospects for such contacts the night before. There are no plans to publish locally significant macro data in the Russian Federation today.
Oil and the ruble
Oil prices did not change much yesterday at the end of the day. At the moment, Brent exceeded $97.5/bbl, but then the quotes adjusted in the absence of new fundamentally significant escalation steps in Iran. Today, Brent futures are trading near $95.8/bbl. If today's data on the US labor market causes a further weakening of the dollar, oil may return above $96/bbl.
On Thursday, the Russian ruble strengthened. The reason for this was the announcement of the Ministry of Finance's plans to reduce foreign currency purchases in September – in net terms, from September 7, 1.9 billion rubles/day will be purchased daily against the current 5.9 billion rubles/day. Today, the CNYRU exchange rate is at 12.85 rubles/yuan. In general, the exchange rate may continue to move in the area of 12.80-13.00 rubles /yuan, but it is important to take into account that purchases in a smaller volume will start only on Monday.
Viktor Grigoriev, Chief Analyst at Bank Saint Petersburg.
