On Friday, the Moscow Exchange index sank by 0.8%, but managed to stay above 2,800 points. This is a fairly important level, but it has already been repeatedly traded, and now it is not a strong barrier to either growth or decline. This morning, this mark has already fallen. Moreover, due to the height of the dividend cutoff season, the technical picture for the Moscow Exchange Index will deteriorate.
In particular, today is the first day without dividends for MTS shares, and they have already fallen by almost 16%. We do not recommend buying shares with the expectation of a quick closing of the dividend gap – it can take many months, if not several years. So, the paper has not closed the gaps in the last 2 years.Gazpromneft is trading on the last day with dividends, tomorrow is X 5, and on Wednesday is the Moscow Stock Exchange. Then there will be Sber, Surgutneftegaz, Rosneft, and Transneft. Of all the upcoming cut-offs, we recommend considering the possibility of going to dividends only on X 5 and Savings.
Together, these dividend gaps can drop the Moscow Exchange Index by 3 percent, that is, to a strong support of 2,700 points. If there is any negativity and it does not stand, then the next goal of the bears will be to test the former support line of the downtrend from the end of February, which is currently around 2,680 points.
However, all the same, the sprouts of optimism are making their way. They are related to expectations of a faster reduction in the Central Bank's key rate. Many people have already practically included in the debt market a decrease of 2 percentage points in July and up to 16% by the end of the year. The stock market has barely begun to play back these expectations, with the exception of speculative purchases of shares of developers and the most heavily leveraged companies.
Everything is calm in the foreign exchange market. In the last two days of last week, the yuan-ruble pair began to test a strong resistance of 11. So far, these actions have not been successful – serious currency sales are beginning in the area of this mark.
For some time, the ruble will receive support as a result of the fact that a number of large exporters will sell increased volumes of dollars and yuan to accumulate funds for the payment of dividends. But soon this factor will come to naught.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
The "Comments" section of the AK&M news agency publishes materials submitted by Russian and foreign investment companies and banks. Their opinions may not coincide with the opinion of the editorial staff of the AK&M agency. The opinions presented in the comments are expressed taking into account the situation at the time of publication of the material. The comments are for informational purposes only; they do not constitute an offer or advice on the purchase or sale of securities. For questions about the placement of information in this section, please contact the agency's editorial office by phone (499) 132-61-30 ext. 0102.
