The external background on Friday morning can be described as moderately positive. Sentiment abroad is mostly optimistic, while oil prices have moved to consolidate near their peaks since the end of July. Gold quotes are trying to hold the $4,500/oz mark.
Trading on the US stock exchanges ended yesterday with the growth of the three main indexes by 1-1.4%, led by the high-tech Nasdaq. The indicators continued to retreat from the area of important short-term supports against the background of a downward correction in government bond yields. At the same time, the Fed representatives also became a little more cautious in their comments on the regulator's future policy, not giving clear signals in favor of raising the interest rate at the September meeting, which gave stocks an impetus to growth. The final estimates of the PMI and ISM on Thursday, at the same time, indicated an acceleration in the growth rate of activity in the US services sector in August.
Futures for the S&P 500 index are adding about 0.1% in the morning. On Friday, investors are waiting for the key report on the country's labor market for August, which, according to average forecasts, may show employment growth in the non-agricultural sector by 55 thousand after falling by 23 thousand a month earlier: data likely foreshadowing the restrained rhetoric of the Fed and favorable for sentiment in stocks and gold.
Trading on European stock exchanges ended yesterday with an increase in the index The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.3%, which broke out of the intraday downside and the low area since the end of July amid an improvement in global sentiment, trying to save short- and medium-term uptrends. At the same time, data released on Friday showed a jump in German manufacturing orders in July by 2.5% mom (expected +0.3%) after an increase of 3.7% a month earlier.
There has been a positive trend in trading in Asia since the morning after yesterday's purchases in the United States. Japan's Nikkei rose 1.3%. The Australian ASX 200 was an exception and decreased by 0.2%. Chinese indices change in different directions, within 1%. Hong Kong The Hang Seng jumped by 1.7%, retreating from the support area of 25,200 points. The South Korean KOSPI is up 1.6%. At the same time, many exchanges in the region end the week with negative dynamics.
The nearest futures for Brent crude oil have hardly changed positions in the morning after restrained dynamics the day before, when quotes during the day reached another peak since the end of July at $97.62/bbl amid the ongoing tense situation in the Middle East. Prices maintain the base for a return to the summer high of $102/bbl and are waiting for new geopolitical and economic signals, ending the week with a jump of about 8.4%. At the same time, OPEC+ will probably not change the level of oil production quotas for October at its meeting this Sunday, according to media reports.
The Moscow Exchange and RTS indices rose by 1.36% and 1.49%, respectively, on the eve of encouraging comments from the Russian president about the prospects for a stock market recovery, stabilizing above the psychologically important levels of 2,200 points and 800 points. Thus, the way was opened for the indicators to move at least to the August peaks of 2,331 points and 901 points (as well as the upper Bollinger bands of the daily charts).
The ruble against the yuan on the Moscow Stock Exchange strengthened by 0.6% the day before, to 12.90 rubles, retreating from the minimum reached earlier in the week since February 2025 of 13 rubles. The official dollar and euro exchange rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation amounted to 86.88 rubles and 100.59 rubles, respectively (against 86.99 rubles and 100.82 rubles on the previous working day), reflecting the restrained growth of the ruble against both currencies. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation on Thursday announced a reduction in purchases of foreign currency and gold from September 7 to October 6 to 2.5 billion rubles per day against 6.5 billion rubles per day in the previous month – a moderately positive factor for the ruble.
At the beginning of the main trading session, the Russian stock market is set to develop an upward movement and will strive for August highs against the background of some improvement in the geopolitical background in the Ukrainian conflict. Yesterday's statements by the Russian president on Friday were supplemented by reports about the planned visit of US special envoys Witkoff and Kushner to Moscow in the coming days, which strengthens investors' hopes for the possibility of resolving the conflict. Many stocks are also recovering from recent lows and responding to reports from the WEF, which on Friday discussed energy issues and, in particular, cooperation between China and Russia.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital.
