The external background on Thursday morning can be called ambiguous. Sentiment abroad is mixed, and oil prices have resumed rising to an annual high after consolidating the day before. Metal quotes do not show uniform dynamics, feeling the pressure of a strong dollar.
Trading on the US stock exchanges ended yesterday with the growth of the three main indexes by 0.5-1.3%, led by the high-tech Nasdaq. At the same time, the S&P 500 indicator remained above the important medium-term support of 6,775 points, giving hope for maintaining the main bullish trend, although it has been recording lower and lower highs since the end of January. In the middle of the week, the market developed a technical recovery from annual lows. In addition, macroeconomic data released on Wednesday showed an acceleration in employment growth in the US private sector in February by 63,000 according to ADP estimates (+50,000 expected), following an increase of 11,000 a month earlier: a moderately positive signal ahead of Friday's key report on the country's labor market. At the same time, business activity indicators in the US services sector from the PMI and ISM for February indicated its expansion. Statistics generally indicate the strength of the world's largest economy.
Futures for the S&P 500 index are losing about 0.4% in the morning, again showing caution after rising the day before.
Trading on European stock exchanges ended yesterday with a 1.75% increase in the Euro Stoxx 50 index, which was adjusted upward along with the American stock exchanges. On Thursday, the ECB will publish the minutes of the last meeting, while the market is now considering raising interest rates this year due to the risks of global inflation.
There has been a positive trend in trading in Asia since the morning after purchases in the United States. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.7%. The Australian ASX 200 increased by 0.45%. China's exchanges are adding within 1%. At the same time, the Chinese authorities set targets for the country's GDP growth this year in the range of 4.5-5% (against 5% in previous years) and promised to continue fiscal stimulus to the economy. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is rising by less than 0.1%, missing the highs of the day and the resistance of 25,750 points. South Korea's KOSPI jumped 9.6%, trying to make up for the losses of the first half of the week incurred as part of the correction.
Brent crude futures are adding about 2% in the morning against the backdrop of continued tensions in the Middle East, after minor changes the day before. At the same time, the quotes remain slightly below the maximum reached this week since July 2024 of $85.12/bbl. Iran and the United States currently do not express their readiness to hold talks, which implies the continued risks of disruptions in oil and gas supplies. A report by the US Department of Energy on Wednesday, meanwhile, showed an increase in oil reserves in the country last week by 3.47 million barrels (+3 million barrels expected) after a jump of 15.98 million barrels a week earlier – a moderately negative signal.
The Moscow Exchange and RTS indices fell by 0.54% and 0.79%, respectively, after attempts to grow during the day, returning to the supports of 2,810 points and 1,135 points. The Russian market has lost its short-term growth momentum, but buyers retain the main initiative when the indicators are above 2,780 points and 1,135 points (the average Bollinger bands of the daily charts).
The ruble against the yuan on the Moscow Stock Exchange yesterday weakened by 0.9% to 11.27 rubles, continuing to fluctuate in a narrow range of values. The official exchange rates of the dollar and euro of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation amounted to 77.80 rubles and 90.74 rubles, respectively (against 77.60 rubles and 90.30 rubles on the previous business day), reflecting a restrained decline in the ruble against both currencies. On Wednesday, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation decided in March 2026, due to planned changes in the base oil price parameter in the budget legislation, not to conduct transactions for the purchase/sale of foreign currency and gold on the domestic market within the framework of the budget rule.
At the beginning of the main trading session, the Russian stock market is ready for a restrained growth from the nearest supports against the background of continued purchases in oil and gas amid tensions in the Middle East. In addition, the highs since 2022 continue to update aluminum prices, which ensure the dynamics of RUSAL and En+ Group better than the market. Sentiment abroad, despite attempts to recover the indices from recent lows, remains cautious, including due to the risks of global inflation. On Thursday, investors in the Russian Federation will be able to assess individual corporate factors in the form of reports from MTS, Mosbirzhi and Polyus for 2025 under IFRS. The settlement of the Ukrainian conflict has temporarily faded into the background.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital.
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