The external background of Wednesday morning can be called ambiguous. Sentiment abroad is mixed, and oil prices are once again retreating from the area of local lows. Meanwhile, the Russian market has not yet received specifics regarding the next stage of peace negotiations.
Trading on the US stock exchanges ended the day before with a predominant decline in the three main indexes within 1.5%, while the high-tech Nasdaq was among the leaders of the fall. Participants feared increased government pressure on chip manufacturers who had received funds under recent benefits. At the same time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed in symbolic positive territory and updated another historical peak. Shares of retailer Home Depot gained about 3.2% after the publication of quarterly results. During the week, Lowe's, Target and Walmart will also present reports. Investors generally recorded profits at record peaks, expectations of new macroeconomic and geopolitical drivers of movement.
Futures for the S&P 500 index are losing about 0.2% in the morning, maintaining a corrective mood primarily in the IT sector. On Wednesday evening, investors are waiting for the publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting, and on Friday for the speech of the head of the regulator, Powell. Many on the stock exchanges are hoping for the Fed to move to lower the key rate as early as September.
Trading in Europe yesterday ended with a 0.9% increase in the Euro Stoxx 50 index, which rose to its peak since the end of March and was heading for an annual maximum of 5,568 points, trying to catch up with the growth of US stocks in previous weeks. The data released this morning showed an acceleration in core UK consumer inflation in July from 3.7% to 3.8% yoy and German manufacturing deflation from 1.3% to 1.5% yoy, worse than forecasts. The final estimates for the eurozone are expected to stabilize at 2.3% YoY during the day.
There has been no consistent trend in trading in Asia since this morning. Japan's Nikkei 225 declined 1.6%, continuing its retreat from record highs after weaker-than-expected trade data and the country's trade balance shifted to a deficit in July, with exports falling 2.6% yoy and imports falling 7.5% yoy. The Australian ASX 200 rose 0.2%. Chinese exchanges are adding within 1%. According to the decision of the People's Bank of China, the interest rate for first-class borrowers in China remained unchanged at 3% on Wednesday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng hardly changes positions, having won back the support of 25,100 points, which it tested during the day.
Brent crude futures are adding within 1% in the morning after falling by just over 1% the day before. Prices, in anticipation of geopolitical news, remain close to the August low of $65.01. At the same time, API data on the reduction of oil reserves in the United States by 2.41 million barrels last week provide support for quotes in the middle of the week. The US Department of Energy is expected to reduce oil reserves by 800 thousand barrels today, which is a moderately positive signal.
On the eve of the main session, the Moscow Exchange and RTS indices increased by only 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively, after more steady growth during the day, returning to the support area of 2950 points and 1160 points. As the day progressed, the indicators retreated from the resistances of 3,010 points and 1,175 points, reacting to reports of the possibility of new European sanctions.
The ruble against the yuan on the Moscow Stock Exchange rose by 0.25% to 11.15 rubles the day before, retreating from another low since the end of July. The official exchange rates of the dollar and euro of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation amounted to 80.34 rubles and 93.56 rubles, respectively (against 80.42 rubles and 94.08 rubles on the previous business day), reflecting the strengthening of the ruble against both currencies.
At the beginning of the main trading session, the Russian stock market is set to develop a restrained upward movement in the face of continued hopes for the continuation of peace talks, but is likely to be cautious due to uncertainty about the date and place of a possible meeting between Putin and Zelensky. Fears of increased geopolitical tensions, including due to the continued sanctions rhetoric in Europe, have so far forced investors to refrain from large-scale purchases. On Wednesday and Thursday, an Indian delegation will visit the Russian Federation, where new agreements are possible, including on commodity exports. Fix Price shares return to trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange after redomicilation.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital.
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