The Moscow Exchange index closed unchanged yesterday. The bidding took place calmly, at reduced speeds. Of the individual securities, it is worth highlighting the Savings Bank, which reported strongly for February - net profit increased by 11.6% to 134.4 billion rubles, net interest income by 21.1% to 241.1 billion rubles, net commission income by 3.1% to 57.6 billion rubles.
However, the head of the bank, German Gref, pointed out that "against the background of high economic rates and the restrictions of the Bank of Russia, corporate and retail lending decreased by 0.1% and 0.4% in real terms over the month." That is, the growth is due to the accumulated credit base. In addition, the increase in net interest income in February is related to the one-time effect of changes in the methodology for calculating subsidies for government programs. We do not exclude that in the summer the bank's profit will begin to decline compared to last year.
In the meantime, the Savings Bank has updated multi-month highs and gained a foothold above the resistance of 316 rubles. The next obstacle is 324 rubles, the breakdown of which will open the way to the highs of last year in the region of 230 rubles. With the improvement of geopolitics and the pre-dividend rally, the paper may well reach 350 rubles.
In general, there were a lot of financial sector securities in Rosta dealers yesterday. In addition to the Savings Bank, these are shares of the Moscow Stock Exchange itself, the Bank Saint Petersburg, and the ICD. Very often, the market-leading dynamics of financiers' stocks are harbingers of an upward trend in the entire Moscow Exchange Index. But in this case, the signal may be false.
Geopolitics can destroy optimistic expectations. Negotiations between the American and Ukrainian delegations took place yesterday, following which, quite possibly, the United States will promote the idea of a 30-day ceasefire. We are not sure that Russia will accept this option, and in this case, the United States may begin to exert economic pressure on Russia.
Therefore, the risks of correction are high, and we recommend that if you do not cut the longs, then tighten the stops to the current prices. Let's remind you that we have an unclosed gap on the Moscow Exchange Index dated February 13, so technically the indicator should go to an area just above 3,000 points.
From the moderately positive data, it is worth noting that oil is trying to hold the $70 per barrel mark. But even here, the risk of failure by $4–$5 is not excluded.
The ruble continues to strengthen. The yuan-ruble pair is still supported by the area just above 11.5. Before that, the ruble has about 30 cents left to strengthen. At the same time, the dollar-ruble pair reached our 86 target again and even went lower. Positive geopolitical news is needed to continue the growth of the Russian currency, and there may be tension in the near future.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
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