The external background on Monday morning can be called ambiguous. Sentiment abroad has worsened somewhat, and oil prices are going up after a restrained decline on Friday.
Trading on the US stock exchanges on Friday in a shortened session ended with the growth of the three main indexes by slightly more than 0.5%. The market was once again looking at the area of historical highs on hopes of another Fed interest rate cut in December. In addition, there is ongoing talk about the impending change of the head of the regulator to a more dovish-minded successor, whom Trump has probably already chosen.
Futures for the S&P 500 index are losing about 0.7% in the morning, returning to the stage of downward correction amid sales in IT names. This week, the US is expected to publish, among other things, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the core consumer price index, as well as private sector employment data from ADP.
Trading in Europe on Friday ended with a 0.3% increase in the Euro Stoxx 50 index. The market, along with the American stock exchanges, is trying to return to an upward movement after the correction. Today, the final data may confirm the aggravation of the slowdown in the manufacturing sectors of European countries in November.
There has been no consistent trend in trading in Asia since this morning. Japan's Nikkei lost about 1.9% in anticipation of an interest rate hike in the country this month amid continued high inflation. The Australian ASX 200 is down 0.6%. China's stock exchanges are growing within 1%, although data released today showed a drop in the Caixin index of Chinese manufacturing activity in November below 50 points. Over the weekend, the PMI indicators indicated a slowdown in activity, including in the Chinese services sector. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is adding about 0.7%, correcting after the losses of the previous month.
Brent crude futures jumped 2% in the morning after falling within 0.5% on Friday. Quotes tend to resist $64 after OPEC+ decided over the weekend to leave the quota for oil production unchanged for December, as well as suspend its increase in the first quarter of 2026, as previously agreed. In addition, prices are supported by increased geopolitical tensions and the risks of more limited global supplies amid deteriorating relations between the United States and Venezuela, as well as the attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium over the weekend.
The Moscow Exchange and RTS indices jumped 2.1% on Friday following the results of the main session, rising to the resistances of 2,690 points and 1,080 points, respectively, amid continued geopolitical optimism. At the same time, the dollar indicator has updated another peak since October due to currency dynamics. Under an optimistic scenario of continued peace talks, the indices could reach October highs of 2,757 points and 1,089 points as early as this week.
The ruble against the yuan on the Moscow Stock Exchange on Friday strengthened by 0.8% to 10.92 rubles, following the dollar and the euro, reaching a peak since July (10.90 rubles). The official exchange rates of the dollar and euro of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation amounted to 78.22 rubles and 90.81 rubles, respectively (against 78.25 rubles and 90.78 rubles on the previous business day), reflecting minor changes in the ruble against both currencies.
At the beginning of the main trading session, the Russian stock market may not show significant changes and will expect important geopolitical news, in particular, Witkoff's visit to Russia and the continuation of peace talks on Ukraine. Over the weekend, the Ukrainian delegation continued discussions on the peace plan with the United States, the results of which the parties assess as productive. The resumption of the rally in prices for precious metals can be noted on global markets. In particular, gold prices are getting closer to the historical peak of $ 4,398 per ounce, and silver prices have updated the record, rising to $57.86 per ounce, including in anticipation of an imminent interest rate cut by the Fed.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital. https://veles-capital.ru/analytics/article/geopolitika_ostaetsya_klyuchevym_faktorom_tseny_na_dragmetally_ralliruyut/
The "Comments" section of the AK&M news agency publishes materials submitted by Russian and foreign investment companies and banks. Their opinions may not coincide with the opinion of the editorial staff of the AK&M agency. The opinions presented in the comments are expressed taking into account the situation at the time of publication of the material. The comments are for informational purposes only; they do not constitute an offer or advice on the purchase or sale of securities. For questions about the placement of information in this section, please contact the agency's editorial office by phone (499) 132-61-30 ext. 0102.
