The main event of yesterday was the meeting of the US Federal Reserve. The regulator is expected to raise the rate by 0.25 percentage points, and its head Jerome Powell said about the stability of the banking system. In the first minutes, the reaction of the markets was very volatile, but still, in the end, American indices confidently went down, the dollar fell in price, and oil and gold rose.
Investors perceived the Fed's decision as a retreat in the fight against inflation. However, today US index futures are growing by half a percent, gold continues to rise in price, and oil has fallen by 0.8% to a quite acceptable $76 per barrel.
Against this background, it is worth waiting for the outpacing dynamics of the shares of Polyus and Polymetal. Most likely, inflation fears will continue to remain on the market, which may well drag gold into the $2000 area. If fixed above this mark, growth may accelerate, including by closing shorts, with the removal of quotes in the range of $ 2100-$ 2200.
The technical picture for gold is positive. Yesterday, quotes from top to bottom tested the area of $ 1930-$ 1940, which previously repeatedly stopped the growth of the metal, and now has become support.
The shares of oil companies, especially Rosneft, have been looking strong in recent days. If oil does not continue to pour further, the oil industry has a good chance of looking better than the market.
The BEAC again shows an unwillingness to fall within the correction. Now it removes technical overbought consolidation, and at any moment it can resume growth in order to go to 240 rubles.
Today, the management of the bank "Saint Petersburg" promises to give recommendations on dividends. Last year, the bank was the first to pay interim dividends, the dividend yield of the stock then exceeded 11%. The bank does not publish reports even in a truncated form, so it is impossible to make any forecasts about current payments. However, there are hopes that even now the bank will be generous.
The ruble reacted to the commodity positive this morning with growth, paired with the dollar, approaching the support of 76.5 from top to bottom.
Moral support for the ruble will be provided by the approach of the peak of the tax period. However, you should not put much hope on this factor. It seems that large exporters in recent months have begun to sell export earnings more smoothly, without postponing the process on the eve of paying taxes.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
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