The Russian stock market opened yesterday with the traditional growth for Mondays, but could not continue it. After the first hour of trading, sales began on the market, which at the end of the session took the Moscow Stock Exchange Index to more than half a percent minus.
The main fears are the risks of a further increase in the Central Bank's key rate and keeping it at a high level for a long time. Therefore, you should not count on the trend growth of the stock market. At the same time, the strong drawdowns of the Moscow Stock Exchange Index will restrain the dominance of private investors at auctions, most of whom like to buy more than sell, as well as high oil prices.
In such conditions, it is worth switching to speculative trading tactics, buying promising securities on drawdowns, and opening shorts, or at least getting rid of potential outsiders, with rebounds.
The oil industry can be safely attributed to the cohort of strong securities. This morning, oil prices are trading around $95 per barrel, that is, at the upper limit of the resistance range. Almost everyone is waiting for the further growth of "black gold" and its departure to the area of $ 100. Most likely, it will be so – oil under the influence of analysts' "hypnosis" will grow on forecasts of its own growth.
Among the real drivers of the upward movement of oil, one can note the traditional shutdown of refineries for prevention in the United States, as well as the approaching traditional hurricane season, which, if it does not cause damage, will cause a shutdown of oil production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico for some time. So far, the picture suggests that thinking about Brent shorts is in the range of $100-$103.
Naturally, the promising securities should include the shares of the Moscow Stock Exchange itself. The nearest potential for their growth is about 15 rubles, but they will realize it quite volatile.
Now about the most credited issuers, where many communications and high-tech companies fall. In particular, such a "dividend aristocrat" as MTS becomes uninteresting. Even a 10% dividend yield is now unattractive, since it is much inferior to risk-free yields on OFZ.
We do not see any prospects for a "better market" for shares in the construction sector.
So far, in general, a sideways trend with the boundaries of 3100-3270 points is beginning to appear for the Moscow Exchange Index.
The same can be said about the ruble. For some time, the devaluation impulse of the Russian currency has subsided, but it will certainly resume after some time if the monetary authorities do not take tough steps, first of all, to limit the outflow of capital from the country. So far, the 92.5 mark is a very strong support for the dollar-ruble pair, and the 98 area is the resistance.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
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