Yesterday, the stock market came to life. Afternoon trading was mostly marked by a decline, which intensified closer to the close of the main session. The United States announced the introduction of an additional 25 percent duty on Indian goods for the fact that the country buys Russian oil. By the end of the day, the Moscow Exchange Index sank by almost 0.8%.
The situation changed dramatically in the evening. US President Donald Trump made very good, almost enthusiastic comments following the meeting between his special representative Steve Witkoff and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which caused the Moscow Exchange Index to soar by more than 100 points and reach 2,880 points. At the same time, the market did not react to the news that followed about a possible imminent meeting between the heads of Russia and the United States.A slightly negative aspect is that the indicator failed to gain a foothold above the important resistance of 2850 points. If the barrier is overcome, then the growth target will be the area of 2,930 points – there are two unclosed gaps from May 12 and 15 this year.
In general, our idea of a speculative purchase under the announcement of anti-Russian sanctions or the appearance of some kind of geopolitical positive worked. Part of the profit can be fixed, but we do not exclude the continued growth of the market based on geopolitics. As for sanctions, the likelihood of their introduction has now decreased dramatically – most likely, Donald Trump will not want to destroy the emerging progress on the settlement of the Ukrainian problem.
The shares of the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange were better than the market yesterday, rising by 9.6%. They always react vividly to the geopolitical news. We will not give recommendations on them, since the paper is not very liquid and can ignore overbought conditions, continuing to grow. We really like the issuer itself.
A different view of Rostelecom, whose revenue increased by 5.45% yesterday, and prefs – by 1.7%. Perhaps the paper is being selected for dividends. But we believe that now is not the time to buy companies in the communications industry.
The expected correction in Lenta has begun (-0.6%). Here the decline can be continued.
The exchange-traded ruble spent Wednesday without fundamental changes, paired with the yuan, closing just below 11.1. This morning, futures for this pair are declining, followed by the underlying asset. However, we would not bet on the strong growth of the Russian currency. A serious strengthening of the ruble would be facilitated by the influx of foreign capital into the country, including OFZ, but this could happen in many months, even in the most optimistic scenario. For now, it is worth considering opening long positions for the yuan-ruble pair below the 11 mark, but only with a confident upward reversal of the pair.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
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