Oil in the morning will support domestic "bears"

Alexey Antonov, ALOR BROKER 26 September 2023 12:22

The Russian stock market started the day with a decline yesterday, which is not typical for Mondays. Such dynamics at the beginning of the week indicates the fading of investment optimism. In the future, part of the drawdown was redeemed, but still the MOSBIRZHI Index ended the day with small losses.

Yesterday was rich in corporate news. So, the head of Sovcomflot said that the company plans to earn as much in the second half of the year as in the first. There is no reason to doubt what has been said, taking into account the fact that in the reports of Sovcomflot it was noted that more than half of the planned revenue has already been contracted. Yesterday, Sovcomflot was among the growth leaders, having risen in price by almost 7%.

Polymetal has published good reporting for the first half of the year, in particular, adjusted net profit under IFRS increased by 28% compared to a year earlier. The paper grew by 4.6%. However, her future is in great doubt. We have strong doubts that the company will be able to sell the Russian part of the business for a value at least close to fair. Firstly, the potential buyers of such an asset themselves can be counted on the fingers of one hand. Secondly, the purchase is likely to require borrowing, which with current rates is very expensive and possibly unprofitable.

The authorities hinted that the "hole" in the "Russian Post" may begin to plug at the expense of infrastructure payments of marketplaces. But even without these payments, things are not going so well because of the low profitability of the business and the high debt burden, which will now be more expensive to service due to the high key rate of the Central Bank. While we do not raise our hand to buy "Ozone" and "Yandex".

BEAC, with its almost limitless financial resources, will practically not feel new possible payments and, possibly, will strengthen its position in the marketplace market due to the weakening of competitors.

As we expected, Rosneft bounced back, unreasonably heavily sold out last week. However, there is no certainty yet that Rosneft, and the rest of the oil industry, will grow up today. In the morning, oil is down by half a percent, a barrel costs about $ 91.5. We do not exclude that the quotes are going to feel the strength of the support of $ 90.

In general, we do not see any reasons for the growth of the stock market today. This week, we do not rule out testing and even a breakdown of the 3000 points mark on the Moscow Stock Exchange Index.

The Bank of Russia yesterday planned to sharply reduce the volume of currency interventions. But the ruble did not waver, practically unchanged at the end of the day and even tried to strengthen during the session. At the end of the week, when the tax period ends, there is a high probability of resuming a smooth devaluation of the national currency.

Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER

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