Russian steel exports have changed dramatically geographically since 2022. Previously, Europe was the main sales region, but now Turkey and the CIS account for more than 70% of shipments abroad. However, the tightening of EU tariffs against Turkish steel and the massive industrialization in CIS countries create price risks and can increase competition in export markets.
How has the export of steel from Russia in 5 years
Exports of Russian flat rolled products decreased by 40%, to 5.3 million tons, from 2021 to 2025. This follows from the data of the MMI consulting agency.
The supply of the entire range has decreased. In particular, shipments of hot—rolled products, the main export commodity, fell by 36% to 4.3 million tons.
Such a serious decline is due, among other things, to the loss of the premium European market after the beginning of 2022.
Some of the falling European volumes were replaced by sales in the CIS. In this region, the combined growth of cold-rolled and hot-rolled products* amounted to 62% last year compared to 2021 and reached 2.4 million tons.
As a result, by the end of 2025, the main sales markets for Russian steelworkers, according to MMI and the SteelOrbis analytical platform, have become: CIS (50% of total exports); Turkey (26%).
According to our estimates, of all the markets, only the CIS countries currently provide relatively acceptable margins for Russian steelworkers. At the same time, supplies to other regions mostly cover only variable costs, taking into account the still strong ruble exchange rate.
However, we see the risks of increased competition both in the Turkish market and in CIS in the next 1-2 years. This is facilitated by: tightening of EU tariff policy against Turkey; active increase of metallurgical capacities in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
What risks do the new EU measures pose for Russian suppliers
Since July 1, 2026, the European Union has tightened protective measures to support the region's steel industry.: reduced annual duty—free quotas on steel imports by 47%, to 18 million tons; doubled the duty on shipments in excess of quotas, to 50%. The measure also affected Turkey, which was one of the main importers of steel products to the region.
At the same time, the European market remains one of the key markets for Turkish metallurgists. In 2025, the EU imported 3.3 million tons of flat rolled products from the country, according to EUROFER. This is 51% of all Turkish exports.
For Turkey, the guaranteed quota is about 1.4 million tons until the end of June 2027. This is 42% of last year's exports. The remaining part is potentially subject to an additional 50% duty. Such a tariff is actually prohibitive and may increase competition in other markets, including domestic ones. This means that at some point there may be excess volumes of Turkish rolled products, which will amount to 1.9 million tons.
This creates risks for Russian suppliers who export steel to Turkey, because in this case they will have to compete with potentially additional volumes of Turkish products.
The risks of competition are also growing in the CIS countries
In addition to the Turkish market, competition in the CIS will also increase for Russian metallurgists in the medium term. And this region is considered the most profitable export destination. The fact is that a number of large companies from Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are launching their own projects to increase capacity. For example, in July, the Uzmetkombinat, which produces hot-rolled products, was launched. The plant's capacity is 1 million tons of products per year. In addition, the Kazakhstan metallurgical plant Qarmet is also actively working to increase its capacity.
In total, according to our estimates, both countries can increase the production capacity of hot-rolled and cold-rolled products by about 1.7 and 1.0 million tons, respectively, over the next 2 years. This is close to or even higher than the level of exports of Russian products to the CIS countries, according to the MMI data.
What does this mean for Severstal, NLMK and MMK
All 3 companies have high operational efficiency. Therefore, they are flexible in the distribution of sales and increase exports with more restrained domestic demand. Thus, the share of exports of flat rolled products from the total sales of these companies varies from 20 to 30% in different periods.
However, against the background of the possible emergence of additional volumes in the markets of Turkey and the CIS, Russian steelmakers may face a drop in export prices. This will negatively affect the export margin. At the same time, the reorientation to the domestic market, in our opinion, may create pressure on domestic steel prices.
An analyst's view on stocks
Fundamentally, we have a neutral view of the steel sector. However, we are allocating MMK shares in the short term, expecting a stronger growth in financial indicators for the third quarter compared to the second due to seasonal price increases and local shortages in the domestic market. Due to lower margins, MMK is more sensitive to the increase in steel prices. The target price for the issuer's securities is 25 rubles per share.
On NLMK's securities and Severstal maintains a neutral view, and the recommendation is "keep it up."
Ahmed Aliyev, a leading analyst at T-Investments.
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