The external background on Friday morning can be called ambiguous. Oil prices are trying to increase after a steady rise the day before, and sentiment on global stock markets is mostly cautious. In Russia, they will be waiting for the results of the central bank meeting to be summed up.
Trading on the US stock exchanges the day before, after fluctuations during the day, ended with a decrease in the three main indexes by 0.1-0.3%. Uncertainty remained among buyers amid Trump's confirmation of the prospect of imposing global trade duties from April 2, as well as maintaining the Fed's moderately tough stance following Wednesday's meeting. Thursday's statistics showed a decrease in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's index of manufacturing activity in March from 18.1 to 12.5 points (8.8 points were expected).
Futures for the S&P 500 index are losing about 0.1% in the morning, remaining in the waiting mode for economic and geopolitical drivers. Next week in the United States, in particular, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator for February will be published.
Trading in Europe ended with a drop in the index the day before The Euro Stoxx 50 rose by 1%, which entered the stage of a downward correction after strong growth earlier in the week. The Bank of England, like the Fed, did not change the key rate level and kept it at 4.5%.
There has been no consistent trend in trading in Asia since this morning. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.5% after data on the country's core consumer inflation for February exceeded forecasts and showed price growth of 3% yoy (expected +2.9%), recalling the prospect of tightening monetary policy. The Australian ASX 200 added 0.2%. China's stock exchanges are declining by about 1.5% as part of profit-taking. Hong Kong The Hang Seng is falling by 2%, aiming for short-term support of 23,500 points.
The nearest futures for Brent and WTI crude oil are adding about 0.5% in the morning after rising by just over 1.5% the day before. After the strengthening of US sanctions against Iran and fears of a more limited supply, prices are testing the short-term resistances of $72 and $68.50 (the average Bollinger bands of the daily charts). Stabilization above will allow us to expect a move to the area of $74.50 and $71 (the upper Bollinger bands of the daily charts and the middle bands of the weekly charts) within the framework of a medium-term bearish trend.
The indices of the Moscow Exchange and RTS on the eve of the main session fell by another 0.2% and 2%, respectively, continuing the downward correction amid continued geopolitical uncertainty. The ruble indicator continues to fluctuate around 3,220 points (the average Bollinger band of the daily chart), while the dollar-denominated RTS has advanced to 1,200 points after updating earlier in the week to its peak since September 2022.
The ruble against the yuan on the Moscow Stock Exchange weakened by 0.1% at the close of trading to 11.50 rubles, retreating from the day's low of 11.65 rubles. The official exchange rates of the dollar and euro of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation amounted to 84.39 rubles and 92.46 rubles, respectively (82.84 rubles and 90.82 rubles on the previous business day), reflecting a noticeable drop in the ruble against both currencies.
At the beginning of the main trading session, the Russian stock market may not show significant changes and will wait for the results of the meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to be summed up during the day. On average, the regulator is expected to keep the key rate at 21%, but it may soften the signal for the coming meetings, which will be moderately positive for the market. At the end of the week, investors will continue to evaluate corporate news. Thus, the Board of Directors of Bank Saint Petersburg recommended final dividends for 2024 on ordinary securities in the amount of 29.72 rubles (against 23.27 rubles for the same period a year earlier) with a yield of 7.2%. X5 Retail Group also reported net profit under IFRS in 2024 in the amount of 104 billion rubles against 78.6 billion A year earlier, he recommended a dividend of 648 rubles per share (yield of 17.7%).
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital. https://veles-capital.ru/analytics/
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