On Wednesday, the market spent the main trading session sluggishly, the Moscow Exchange Index fell by 0.4% on small volumes. As we expected, the main events unfolded in the evening.
The inflation data turned out to be mixed: the weekly rate increased from 0.03% to 0.06%, and the annual rate decreased from 10.21% to 10.09%. Overall, we rate the indicators as good. If the annual price growth continues to decline, it is hoped that in early summer the Bank of Russia will signal an early easing of monetary policy.However, the main driver of yesterday evening's decline was the geopolitical news. The composition of the Russian delegation to the negotiations with Ukraine has been announced – it will be headed by Presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky. The news caused a sharp market collapse – by 61 points. Investors were waiting for more heavyweight figures of Russian politics to lead the negotiators.
Trading closed at intraday lows, which usually promises a continuation of the downward movement. Nevertheless, the market is growing by 0.7% this morning, but the situation may well change.
The technique suggests that according to the Moscow Exchange Index, a "converging triangle" is forming, the lower side of which today passes just below the 2800 mark. This is where risky investors can try to start buying. However, a lot will depend on the first results of the meeting and the rhetoric of the comments. So today we are waiting for increased volatility.
The shares of the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange, AFK Sistema, NOVATEK, Aeroflot, and Aeroplane were among the leaders of the decline yesterday, that is, the securities most acutely reacting to possible sanctions and monetary easing.
The ruble was strengthening against the yuan and was already preparing to storm the 11 mark, but geopolitics pushed the yuan-ruble pair up in the evening. At the same time, many fundamental factors play against the strong depreciation of the ruble. So, yesterday, the Bank of Russia reported that in April, total purchases of foreign currency by bank customers were the lowest since July 2024. The population is also reducing purchases of foreign currency, and a slight decrease in its sales by major exporters is caused by falling oil prices, rather than the desire to create foreign exchange reserves. However, today the dynamics of trading in the foreign exchange market will also depend on the news from the negotiations.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
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