The external background on Tuesday morning can be called ambiguous. Sentiment abroad is mixed, and oil prices have risen to their peaks since early August. Gold quotes continue to update historical highs and have reached $3,578 per ounce.
Trading on the US stock exchanges was not held the day before, and on Friday it ended with a decrease of the three main indexes by 0.2-1.1%, led by the high-tech Nasdaq. Investors recorded profits at the end of the month before summing up the results of the Fed meeting in September: participants are still hoping for an interest rate cut by the regulator, but there is still no confidence in easing policy.
Futures for the S&P 500 index are losing about 0.1% in the morning, following growth attempts the day before. Trading in the US will resume today, and the PMI and ISM indicators may give mixed signals regarding US manufacturing activity, which is balancing between expansion and contraction.
Trading in Europe ended yesterday with an increase in the index Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.3%, which, however, did not stand at the highs of the day. Final estimates at the beginning of the week showed a return to expansion in business activity in the eurozone manufacturing sector in August. On Tuesday, preliminary estimates are likely to confirm a slowdown in core eurozone consumer inflation in August from 2.3% to 2.2% yoy.
There has been no consistent trend in trading in Asia since this morning. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.3%. The Australian ASX 200 lost 0.3%. China's exchanges are mostly declining within 2%, moving to profit-taking after a period of growth. Hong Kong The Hang Seng declined by 0.4%, correcting from the August peak of 25,918 points.
Brent crude futures are adding about 0.5% in the morning after rising by about the day before. Prices have risen to their highest level since early August amid increased attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure from Ukraine. Investors fear a more limited supply in the market, at the same time mindful of the risks of a further increase in OPEC+ supplies, as well as limited demand in the context of trade wars.
The indices of the Moscow Exchange and RTS on the eve of the main session, after rising during the day, fell by 0.4% and 0.55%, respectively, failing to stay above the resistances of 2905 points and 1140 points. The nearest supports are located at 2,880 points and 1,125 points. On the one hand, the market in September is ready to continue the growth of the previous month, and on the other hand, it shows short-term weakness.
The ruble against the yuan on the Moscow Stock Exchange strengthened by 0.25% the day before, to 11.22 rubles, starting September close to last month's minimum of 11.28 rubles. The official dollar and euro exchange rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation amounted to 80.42 rubles and 94.38 rubles, respectively (against 80.33 rubles and 94.07 rubles on the previous business day), reflecting a moderate weakening of the ruble against both currencies.
At the beginning of the main trading session, the Russian stock market is inclined to develop a restrained decline from yesterday's levels. Investors will be waiting for news from the SCO summit and, in particular, the talks between Putin and Xi Jinping, which may relate to energy issues and cooperation with companies such as Gazprom, Rosneft, Novatek: their heads are also in China. At the moment, it is known that Gazprom and CNPC have signed a memorandum on the construction of the Power of Siberia–2. In the international gold market, amid trade wars and hopes for an interest rate cut, the Fed continues to update new records. At the same time, the United States intends to consider the possibility of introducing new sanctions against Russia this week. The geopolitical background is still limiting purchases.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital. https://veles-capital.ru/analytics/article/geopoliticheskiy_fon_prodolzhaet_ogranichivat_pokupki/
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