The external background on Friday morning can be described as moderately negative. Sentiment abroad is mostly pessimistic, and Brent oil prices have moved lower after reaching another high since May.
Trading on the US stock exchanges ended yesterday with a drop of about 0.7% in the three main indexes. At the same time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to update the lows since the end of July, and the S&P 500 fell below the support of 7,610 points, to the lowest values since early August, warning of the risks of a change, including a medium-term uptrend. Investors reacted to data on the jump in core US manufacturing inflation in August from 4.3% to 4.6% yoy, and the main one from 4.8% to 5.4% yoy. Statistics confirmed the inflation risks ahead of the Fed meeting next week, as well as the release of consumer inflation estimates on Friday. At the same time, US government bond yields continued to rise, and 10-year securities, in particular, updated their peak from October 2023 and came close to 5%.
Futures for the S&P 500 index are trying to stabilize in the morning against the background of a downward correction in oil prices and are adding about 0.4%. Investors reacted optimistically to Oracle's quarterly results, with shares jumping 5.3% after the close of major trading, while Adobe declined 2%. As the day progresses, the market is waiting for data on the stabilization of US consumer inflation in August at 3.4% yoy according to the main indicator and a slowdown in growth from 2.5% to 2.4% yoy (still above the Fed's 2% target) according to the baseline.
Trading on European stock exchanges ended yesterday with a 0.7% drop in the Euro Stoxx 50 index. The indicator continued to move towards lows since the end of July and stabilized below 6,300 points after the ECB increased interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 2.65-2.80%, in line with expectations. At the same time, the regulator raised its inflation forecasts for 2027 and expects it to remain above the target level of 2% for a "long period". Against this background, investors began to price in the continuation of the ECB's monetary policy tightening cycle at the next meetings. At the same time, data published on Friday morning showed an acceleration in UK GDP growth in July from 0.3% to 0.4% mom, which creates the basis for an interest rate increase, including by the Bank of England.
There has been a negative trend in trading in Asia since the morning after sales in the United States. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.9%. The Australian ASX 200 declined 0.9%. Chinese indices are falling within 1.6%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng loses 0.7%. South Korea's KOSPI fell 1.7%. Most markets in the region, with the exception of South Korea, ended the week lower.
The nearest Brent crude futures are down about 2% in the morning after jumping up by more than 6% the day before. Quotes on Friday rose to $109.97/bbl, another high since the end of May, after which they adjusted closer to $106 amid reports of a possible agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz, initiated by Iran and Oman. Purchases in futures this week, following which prices are ready to show an increase of 10%, were supported by a round of increased tensions in the Middle East, which affected oil tankers and ships in the United States and Iran, as well as energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, which reported a drop in oil production in the country to its lowest level since 1990. On Friday, investors are also waiting for the publication of the monthly oil market report from the IEA.
The Moscow Exchange and RTS indices accelerated their growth the day before and jumped by 2% and 3.3%, respectively, rising to their highest levels since the first half of August. The ruble indicator has reached 2,309 points and is getting closer to last month's peak of 2,331 points. Due to the stronger ruble, the dollar-denominated RTS also continues to move towards the August high of 905 points.
The ruble against the yuan on the Moscow Stock Exchange rose by 1% the day before, to 12.53 rubles, accelerating the retreat from the minimum reached last week since February 2025 of 13 rubles. The official exchange rates of the dollar and euro of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation amounted to 84.35 rubles and 98.28 rubles, respectively (against 85.45 rubles and 99.25 rubles on the previous working day), reflecting the growth of the ruble against both currencies.
At the beginning of the main trading session, the Russian stock market is set for a restrained decline and will wait for the results of the meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to be summed up. The baseline scenario is to keep the key rate at 14%, while reducing the rate by even 25 basis points may accelerate purchases in the market and lead to an update by the Moscow Exchange index to the August peak, while at the same time having a negative impact on the ruble. After the main session closes, data on Russian consumer inflation and GDP for the second quarter will also be published. On the corporate front, Ozone shares were under pressure after new attacks on the company's warehouses.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital.
https://veles-capital.ru/analytics/article/rynok_zhdet_zasedaniya_tsb_rf_s_ostorozhnostyu/
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