By the end of Tuesday, the Moscow Exchange Index added about 0.7% more. The market is growing by 0.4% this morning. Thus, the market is approaching a zone of strong resistance – the side of the "expanding triangle" is located in the area of 2780 points, and the mark of 2800 points has been an obstacle to movement both up and down since September last year. At the same time, the clearing of dividends from such large issuers as Sber, Rosneft, and Surgutneftegaz is nearing. They will take away about 2% from the Index. Therefore, most likely, the departure of the Index above the 2800 mark is postponed.
Many people flatter themselves that the stock market will receive support from the reinvestment of paid dividends. This will happen, but we do not exclude that a significant part of the payments received will be used to buy safer bonds or money market funds.Yesterday, after a 10-day sideways movement, the Moscow Government Bond Exchange Index increased by a percentage. The Bank of Russia, in its "What the trends say" review, noted that "in June, the current increase in consumer prices corresponded to the inflation target." This gives grounds to reduce the rate by more than 1 percentage point at the end of the month. However, housing and communal services prices have recently increased, and this will make a large negative contribution to inflation. Therefore, our basic option remains to reduce the "key" by 1 percentage point.
We also believe that the main growth in bond prices has already occurred, and now it is risky to buy them for speculative purposes. But they remain attractive for investment purposes. We also do not exclude that speculative positions will be fixed in the debt market, and this capital will flow to the stock market, which has not yet won back the rate cut.
YUKG shares continued to rise yesterday (+7.3%). The company has come under state control, but it is still unclear what will happen to the minority shares.
VTB grew by 5.3% on the words of Dmitry Pyanov, the bank's first deputy chairman, that the bank's profit in 2026 could exceed the record figure of last year by 100 billion rubles. We would not rely on forecasts for a year and a half ahead. In the meantime, from a business point of view, Sber and T Technologies are doing much better than VTB. We recommend selecting them and going out to receive dividends.
The rate of ruble appreciation dropped significantly yesterday compared to Monday. The yuan-ruble pair came quite close to the strong support of 10.8, but quickly turned up. From the point of view of technology, now it would be good for her to go feel the strength of the resistance 11.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
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