On Friday, the Russian stock market closed with a loss of 0.8%. Sales have intensified this morning – at the time of writing, the market was losing about 1.5%. Thus, the Index's exit from the "converging triangle" continues to be played out. It would be nice to go just below 2700 to close the gaps from April 9th and 10th. This is a realistic scenario, with just over 30 points remaining to fall to this level.
The fundamental reasons for the sales lie in the weakness of the domestic business. Most of the issuers that reported on their work in the first quarter showed a decrease in key indicators compared to last year. Some refused to pay dividends. From a business point of view, this is the right decision, but only investors will not receive money, and you should not count on a serious inflow of liquidity from reinvesting the received payments in the middle or late summer.It's going to get worse. The second quarter promises to be even less successful for the market as a whole due to falling oil prices and the continued impact on corporations of the high cost of credit.
Of the individual securities, the "Pole" has looked better than the market in recent days due to the resumption of gold growth. On Friday, the paper went to the intermediate resistance of $ 3,350 per ounce, and today a pullback began from this barrier. The first support lies around $3,200, and the stronger one is around $3,000.
An improvement in the geopolitical situation could contribute to a change in the overall situation, but there is also no clear breakthrough there yet. Nevertheless, aggressive investors should think about speculative purchases in the region of 2700 according to the Moscow Exchange Index. For long, either futures on the Moscow Exchange Index or shares of banks, for example, T Technologies or Sber, look the most attractive.
Everything is fine in the foreign exchange market, and this indicates the absence of stock market panic and major problems in the economy. The yuan-ruble pair continued to trade near the 11 support on Friday. We do not rule out its testing and even breakdown in the coming days due to the approach of the peak of the tax period. However, it is not worth buying the ruble in the medium term, as falling oil prices will sooner rather than later affect a decrease in the flow of currency into the country and lead to a weakening of the ruble.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
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