The Russian stock market continued to grow, gaining almost 0.8% on Wednesday. The rise continues in morning trading. From a technical point of view, the Moscow Exchange index is entering a strong resistance zone of 2780-2800 points. The 2780 mark is the upper side of the "widening triangle" and the lower boundary of the uptrend of April 10. The area of 2,800 points has been an obstacle for the index to move in both directions for almost a year now.
It is worth adding that the market has been growing continuously for 3 days, bouncing back from local lows by 6.9%. Short-term technical overbought is growing. In addition, today and tomorrow we will receive the latest dividend gaps on such securities as Sber, Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz, and Transneft, which will take away about 2% from the index. So a return to the uptrend can be expected only next week, if geopolitics does not present unpleasant surprises.So far, the dividend situation is not exactly encouraging, but it is much better than our expectations. VTB closed almost half of the dividend gap. Yesterday, on the last day of trading with annual profits, Transneft's prefixes were among the best securities on the market, rising in price by 4.5%. The paper was clearly taken for dividends.
Surgut's prefs, which received a dividend gap today, rose in price by only 0.6%. This is understandable – the strong ruble inspires fears that by the end of 2025 the company will be able to pay interesting dividends. On the other hand, they didn't get rid of the paper on the eve of the cutoff, which is a good thing.
Expectations of a reduction in the key interest rate, which the debt market has been playing out for a long time, and the stock market is still ignoring, should become the driver of the growth of stocks.
There is no doubt that the rate will be reduced. The only question is by what amount. Yesterday, very good data on price growth was released. Thus, weekly inflation on July 14 decreased to 0.02% from 0.79% a week earlier, and in annual terms, the indicator decreased to 9.34% from 9.45%. It cannot be ruled out that the rise in housing and communal services prices, which caused inflation to spike a week earlier, will not have a long-term impact on the overall price dynamics.
If the theoretical economists of the Central Bank agree with this point of view, then in this case it is impossible to exclude a reduction in the rate by 2 percentage points at once.
Rostelecom was among the growth leaders (+4%). We view the communications industry as a whole negatively, as well as possible IPOs of companies in the sector. A rate of even 14% per annum will force issuers to give a very large discount to the "fair value", which is unprofitable for them. Investors who have received colossal losses (over 60% for individual securities) from the first placements in 2024 will be more cautious about buying new securities and demand an even higher premium.
Trading on the foreign exchange market was very calm with a small range of fluctuations in quotations. The yuan-ruble pair is not even trying to storm the 10.8 support. Now, logically, it would need to go to the 11 area.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
The "Comments" section of the AK&M news agency publishes materials submitted by Russian and foreign investment companies and banks. Their opinions may not coincide with the opinion of the editorial staff of the AK&M agency. The opinions presented in the comments are expressed taking into account the situation at the time of publication of the material. The comments are for informational purposes only; they do not constitute an offer or advice on the purchase or sale of securities. For questions about the placement of information in this section, please contact the agency's editorial office by phone (499) 132-61-30 ext. 0102.
