The Russian stock market dropped by a percentage yesterday and closed the day at the upper limit of the support zone of 2700-2720 points according to the Moscow Exchange Index 2. However, trading turnover was meager, just over 50 billion rubles, which means that there is no flight from risky assets yet.
The reason for the weakness of the Russian market is still the fear of the US imposing high duties on goods from countries that purchase Russian oil.
Yesterday, Rosstat again reported weekly deflation (-0.05%) and a decrease in the annual rate from 9.17% to 9.02%. This increases the likelihood that in September the Bank of Russia will lower the rate by 2 percentage points. However, much will depend on the actions of the American president in the decision of the regulator.
The stock market did not react to good inflation in any way. We do not exclude the possibility that bond prices will continue to rise today, with long-term issues still having good growth potential.
VK shares were better than the market on Wednesday, rising 3.5%. The reason for their growth was the news that VK Technologies had transformed into PAO. The market perceived this as preparation for an IPO. We still believe that now is far from the best time to go public. The market is weak, and due to the high risk-free rate, it will be necessary to give a huge premium to the "fair value".
As we expected, Polyus shares failed to gain a foothold above the strong resistance of 2 thousand rubles and rolled back from it by 2.8%. Paper, although it is very attractive in the long term, we do not recommend buying it yet, it is worth waiting for either lower prices or (which is less likely) a steady consolidation above 2 thousand rubles.
Norilsk Nickel also fell in price, where profits were fixed after rising by 5% on Tuesday. This paper has a chance of a not very strong rise.
Aeroflot sank 0.3%, reacting to a decrease in net profit by more than 3 times in the 2nd quarter of 2025. We are afraid that the results for the 3rd quarter will be quite sad due to transport collapses and a hacker attack on the company.
In general, we still see no reason to break through the 2700-2720 support zone. Most likely, the market will try to bounce up a little today, and with a neutral news background, it will trade in the range of 2700-2750 points according to the Moscow Exchange Index.
As we expected, after the "cross" was drawn on Tuesday, the ruble strengthened, taking away 2% of the value from the "Chinese". Speculators have recorded profits made on the short-term uptrend in the yuan-ruble pair on July 22. Probably, many exporters have found the exchange rate of recent days attractive for increasing currency sales.
Most likely, in the coming days, exchange rates will fluctuate a little more, and then the main currency pairs will fall sideways with a tendency to a slight weakening of the ruble. However, the geopolitical news will make major changes in the course of trading.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
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