As we have repeatedly noted, the Russian stock market is far from being in the best condition. Therefore, it is not surprising that yesterday's statement by US President Donald Trump on shortening the deadline for the ultimatum on resolving the situation around Ukraine caused another drop in the Moscow Exchange Index, which fell by 1.5%.
Even the strong depreciation of the ruble, which is always positive for the shares of exporters, did not help the market.
VTB shares suffered the largest losses of 4.8%. We have already noted that an attempt to start closing the dividend gap too quickly is unjustified, fundamentally VTB shares look worse than many other representatives of the financial sector.
Aeroflot sank 3.5% amid another collapse, which this time was caused by a hacker attack. Perhaps this will serve as a lesson to someone that it is necessary to invest in information security.
Against this background, risky investors can try to buy shares of the leader of cybersecurity, the Positiv Group.
As for the shares of Aeroflot itself, we recommend that investors forget about them for many months.
Technically, the Moscow Exchange Index is close to the first support zone of 2700-2720 points. It is possible that there will be rebound attempts from here. But the sanctions promised by Donald Trump will put pressure on the market. If the worst-case scenario is realized, then in a week and a half the Moscow Exchange Index will go to annual lows of 2,600 points, or even update them.
In such a situation, it is most risky to buy shares in the oil industry. The sanctions are unlikely to stop Russian exports of hydrocarbons, but they will seriously reduce their volumes, and buyers will demand higher discounts.
The ruble has fallen by more than 2.5% against the yuan. Trump's statement was just a trigger for the movement. After the yuan-ruble pair broke out of the sideways trend and consolidated above the important resistance of 11, strong growth, including the closing of medium-term shorts, was expected. So it happened.
However, ruble investments still remain multiples more profitable than foreign currency ones, as evidenced by the continued increase in government bond prices - yesterday the RGBI index increased by 0.6%. No one doubts the solvency of the Russian Ministry of Finance, which is why OFZ and high-quality corporate bonds are now a kind of "safe haven."
The growth potential of bonds has not yet been exhausted, they can be held both speculatively and as an investment, but I really want to wait for the correction to replenish the portfolios.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
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