The Russian stock market continued to adjust yesterday after moving up from the "triangle". At the end of the day, the Moscow Exchange Index lost almost 1.2%, at the moment falling only 10 points short of the support of 2,800 points. It is possible that it will be tested today. In the event of a breakdown, the next reduction target lies 50 points below. There were no obvious reasons for the sales. We can say that Europe's progress on the issue of introducing another package of anti-Russian sanctions added to the negative, but the market has long developed sanctions immunity.
In the evening, I was not very pleased with the inflation. In the week to June 30, consumer price growth increased from 0.04% to 0.07%, but the annual rate decreased from 9.41% to 9.39%. So far, these data can be called good and favorable for a rate cut at the end of the month. However, do not forget that since the second half of the year, tariffs for housing and communal services have been sharply increased, and they will certainly make their negative contribution to price increases. At the same time, signals from the Central Bank about its intention to soften continue. Thus, the head of the regulator, Elvira Nabiullina, said that if the economy slows down faster than expected, then inflation will go down, and this will give the Bank of Russia the opportunity to lower the rate faster. However, taking into account the increase in tariffs of monopolies, we expect a reduction in the rate by only 1 percentage point. Most likely, the Central Bank will decide to see how rising prices for electricity and utilities will affect overall inflation.Yesterday, VK shares were among the growth leaders with a result of +2.5%, which, as always, reacted to expectations of a relaxation of the PREP. For the same reason, the "Airplane" grew by 1%. It is possible that today we will see the fixation of speculative profits on them.
Norilsk Nickel grew by 1.4%, which has been looking better than the market in recent days. This could be explained by the rising prices of platinum and palladium, but it is still more likely that the paper that was left behind was simply picked up in the absence of other ideas. We do not see any fundamental reasons for MMC shares to trade better than the market.
VTB dropped by 2%. It seems that there are very few people willing to go out to receive dividends and then catch a huge gap, and everyone began to throw off paper in advance, and not in the last days before the registry was cut off.
Shares of YUGK have fallen by almost 15%. The reason for the panic was the news that the company's offices were being searched. Since the essence of the security forces' claims against the issuer is not really known, it is useless to make recommendations on paper. However, speculators need to keep an eye on the news – there may be another serious failure, as well as a powerful rebound.
As for gold, it slowed down its growth rate, rising in price by only 0.3% on Wednesday. Most likely, quotes will seek balance and try to go sideways around the $3,370 per ounce mark.
Everything is calm in the foreign exchange market – the yuan-ruble pair closed almost unchanged, while the amplitude of intraday fluctuations continues to decrease. A sideways exit is brewing.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
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