The external background on Wednesday morning can be described as moderately positive. Sentiment abroad is mostly optimistic, and oil prices are trying to return to growth after a downward correction at the beginning of the week.
Trading on the US stock exchanges ended yesterday with the growth of the three main indexes by 0.3-0.8, led by the high-tech Nasdaq. All 3 indicators retreated from the highs of the day after updating the next historical highs. Nvidia shares, in particular, jumped 5% on continued optimism about AI technology. The US market as a whole remains in an optimistic mood after the publication last Friday of data on the country's consumer inflation for September, which slowed from 3.1% to 3% yoy.
Futures for the S&P 500 index are adding about 0.3% in the morning in anticipation of the outcome of today's Fed meeting, which is likely to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points and thus may support, among other things, gold prices that have moved to correction. After the closing of the main trades, participants are also waiting for the publication of quarterly results of companies such as Microsoft and Alphabet.
Trading in Europe ended yesterday with a decline in the index The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.15%, which is also at a historic high and is stabilizing above 5,700 points.
There has been a positive trend in Asian trading in the morning against the background of purchases in the United States. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped 2.4% on optimism in the IT sector, continuing to update record peaks. The Australian ASX 200 fell by 1% after the release of data on the acceleration of inflation in the country in the third quarter from 0.7% to 1.3% yoy, which reduces the likelihood of a new easing of monetary policy. China's stock exchanges are growing within 1.5% on hopes of successful trade negotiations during the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping this week. Hong Kong stock exchanges are closed for the weekend.
Brent crude futures are up less than 0.5% this morning after falling about 1.5% the day before. Quotes in the first half of the week were prone to a corrective decline from the peak reached on Friday since the end of September at $66.78. Prices had previously received support after the expansion of US energy sanctions against Russia, which included Rosneft and LUKOIL. Subsequently, rumors appeared on the market about the intention of OPEC+ to increase oil production again in December by 137 thousand barrels per day, which stopped purchases. API, before today's publication of the US Department of Energy's report on oil reserves, announced their reduction last week by 4 million barrels – a bullish signal for prices.
The indices of the Moscow Stock Exchange and RTS did not show a single trend on the eve of the main session. The ruble indicator rose correctively by 0.74% after updating the next low of the year 2457 points a day earlier. The dollar–denominated RTS retreated from the session high against the background of currency dynamics and lost 0.3%, having reached 956 points earlier in the week, the lowest value since February this year.
The ruble against the yuan on the Moscow Stock Exchange yesterday decreased by 0.1% to 11.70 rubles. The official exchange rates of the dollar and euro of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation amounted to 79.81 rubles and 92.93 rubles, respectively (against 78.98 rubles and 92.02 rubles on the previous business day), reflecting the weakening of the ruble against both currencies.
At the beginning of the main trading session, the Russian stock market may be trying to develop corrective growth from recent lows, but remains generally weak after increased US sanctions pressure and the introduction of new restrictions, in particular against LUKOIL and Rosneft. Optimism about possible peace talks between the presidents of the United States and the Russian Federation has faded, although Ukraine and Europe intend to work out the details of a ceasefire plan in the coming days. Reducing the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at Friday's meeting by only 0.5 percentage points, to 16.5%, with a tightening signal also does not help market sentiment. A possible next target for the movement of the Moscow Exchange index in the absence of encouraging signals may be a minimum of 2,370 points in 2024.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital.
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