On Monday, the Russian stock market continued its negative trend. At the same time, at the beginning of the session, he tried to hold positions at Friday's closing levels, but the growth of geopolitical risks based on D. Trump's statements led to increased sales in Russian stocks. As a result, by the end of the evening session, the Moscow Exchange index lost 1.5%, retreating to the area of 2,730 points with a further increase in trading activity.
Among Monday's outsiders, VTB securities (-4.8%), where additional pressure was exerted by information that the bank's supervisory board would consider an additional issue on July 30, and Aeroflot (-3.5%), where information about a malfunction in information systems exerted pressure on quotes. They were accompanied by shares of Aeroplane and Sovcombank, whose losses exceeded 4%. Norilsk Nickel and Polyus finished the Monday session better than the market, adding 2% and 0.9%, respectively. They could be supported by high prices for gold and platinum group metals, as well as the weakening of the national currency. Rusal's securities also closed in the "plus" (+1.3%) and Surgutneftegaz's prefs (+0.9%).
Today, at the start of trading, we expect attempts by the market to consolidate at the reached levels. However, during the session, sales may intensify again, which will lead to a further retreat of the Moscow Exchange index with the risks of testing support at the level of 2,700 points. The reasons for a further decline in the market will be geopolitical risks, the lack of supportive news and investor uncertainty about the trajectory of the key rate cut, fueled by the weakening of the national currency. Our target range for the Moscow Exchange index today is the range of 2,700 – 2,750 points.
Bogdan Zvarich, Head of Banking and Financial Market Analysis at PSB
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