Trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange opened yesterday with a sharp drop. At one point, there was not a single growing stock among the stocks included in the calculation of the index of the same name. This is how investors reacted to the deterioration of geopolitics, which resulted in the actual breakdown of negotiations on Ukraine in London. However, the 2,900-point mark, which has now become a support, has held. The same geopolitics contributed to this in many ways – information appeared about the visit of the special representative of the US President Donald Trump to Moscow. The media also write about a possible imminent meeting between the heads of Russia and the United States.
In the evening, the bulls were supported by Rosstat, which reported that weekly inflation decreased from 0.11% to 0.09%, while annual inflation remained unchanged at 10.34%. This makes it almost certain that the Bank of Russia will not raise its key rate tomorrow. The optimistic version of the outcome of the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank provides for a strong softening of rhetoric.
The technical picture of the market is positive – since April 10, the Moscow Exchange Index has been trading in an ascending channel. Today, its boundaries are 2,930 and 3,020 points. We do not rule out a channel breakout tomorrow, after the announcement of the results of the Central Bank meeting.
The "cross" drawn on Tuesday on the daily chart of the yuan-ruble pair resulted in yesterday's 2.2 percent drop in the ruble. The reason for buying the currency was not so much geopolitics as the statement by Anton Siluanov, Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation, about the need to change the oil cut-off price in the budget rule and bring the liquid assets of the National Welfare Fund to "the level of three years of uninterrupted financing of expenditure obligations in the event of a stressful development of the situation in the oil market." Thus, it can be expected that the necessary legislative amendments will be adopted within a couple of months, and in the summer the support of the ruble from the budget rule will weaken significantly.
One of the best ways to make money on the depreciation of the ruble is to purchase preferred shares of Surgutneftegaz. We believe that the time has come to get them into portfolios for investment purposes. Yesterday, the paper grew by 0.9%. However, we do not exclude one or two more downward blows of the yuan-ruble pair at the peaks of the tax period.
Gold continued to correct from the $3,500 per ounce mark, which only the most outspoken optimists expected at the beginning of the year. Yesterday, the metal lost 3.7% of its value. So far, it looks like taking speculative profits to achieve the most optimistic growth goal. We do not rule out the resumption of the rise in gold purchases by major global central banks, which will replace the dollar with "eternal value." Gold has grown by 1.3% this morning. We recommend holding Polyus shares for now.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
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