On Thursday, the Russian stock market declined moderately. After the Moscow Exchange index managed to close above 2,300 points a day earlier, some investors switched to profit-taking. As a result, the index decreased by 0.4%, again falling below this mark. At the same time, rising oil prices supported purchases in the "weighted" securities of the oil and gas sector, which restrained the decline of the market as a whole. At the same time, trading volumes have stabilized – in recent sessions, trading volumes of securities from the Moscow Exchange index have been held in the region of 83 billion rubles during all sessions, slightly below the average values for the last month – about 104 billion rubles.
RusAgro shares were among the trading outsiders, losing 13.8% against the background of the divestment, and Diasoft (-7%), where sales prevailed against the background of the postponement of consideration of the issue of a buyback to the next quarter. They were joined by VSMPO-Avisma and Segezha, which lost 6.4% and 5%, respectively.
The leaders were Softline and Astra securities, which added 9.7% and 7.2%. Russneft (+6.6%), Bashneft (+3.1%) and Tatneft (+2.7%) looked better among oil and gas companies.
Today, the Moscow Exchange index will continue to trade around 2,300 points, which is important from a technical point of view - a 38% correction to the 18-week wave of decline. If the market manages to gain a foothold above this level, it will open the way to the next target – the 2,400-point mark with intermediate resistance at 2,360 points.
If the market fails to hold its position higher, the scenario of a transition to correction will become more active, which is facilitated by both technical factors (market overheating) and the fundamental lack of positive changes on the geopolitical track, the risks of a further slowdown in economic growth, as well as a further revision by investors of expectations for the dynamics of the key rate in favor of a slower reduction.
In the current situation, in our opinion, the formation of medium-term portfolios looks premature, and attempts to open speculative positions with the expectation of a continued rebound carry increased risks, which should be compensated by close "stops". The target range for the Moscow Exchange index today is the range of 2260-2360 points.
Bogdan Zvarich, Head of Banking and Financial Market Analysis at PSB.The "Comments" section of the AK&M news agency publishes materials submitted by Russian and foreign investment companies and banks. Their opinions may not coincide with the opinion of the editorial staff of the AK&M agency. The opinions presented in the comments are expressed taking into account the situation at the time of publication of the material. The comments are for informational purposes only; they do not constitute an offer or advice on the purchase or sale of securities. For questions about the placement of information in this section, please contact the agency's editorial office by phone (499) 132-61-30 ext. 0102.
