The Moscow Exchange index fell below 2,850 points yesterday, but the bears could not realize their success, and by the end of the day the market added 0.8%, albeit at extremely low volumes. Trading closed at intraday highs, which usually promises a continuation of the movement. That's how it's going so far – the market has been growing by 0.1% since morning. Now the target of the movement is the resistance zone of 2920-2950 points. It will be very difficult to gain a foothold above it without additional drivers.
Statistics also supported the bulls – in the week to September 1, inflation decreased by 0.08%, and the annual rate fell from 8.48% to 8.3%. These data increase the likelihood that at the meeting on September 12, the Bank of Russia will immediately reduce the rate by 2 percentage points.The shares of AFK Sistema, one of the most heavily-credited issuers, were among the growth leaders, growing by 2.8%. There are no reasons for their outstripping growth, we continue to look at paper negatively and do not recommend including it in medium-term portfolios.
Ferrous metallurgists were better than the market, growing by 1.7-2%. The news that the government is preparing tax breaks for companies in the sector was played out here. In our opinion, they are not large enough to fundamentally change the situation in the industry. Investors should continue to avoid hardware.
The growth rate of Polyus slowed down - +0.4% on Wednesday against +1.9% on Tuesday and +2.2% on Monday. This is due to the slowdown in the rise of gold. Today, the precious metal has turned down again. It is ok. On August 29, quotes broke through the "converging triangle" and now, according to the rules of technical analysis, they may well test the breakdown zone ($3,500 per ounce) from top to bottom or at least approach it. In addition, yesterday, the gold miner's shares closed the day on dynamic resistance, which was the broken lower limit of the ascending channel from mid-July. So while it's risky to buy more Polyus, we are waiting for a new upward reversal of gold.
Rosneft shares sank by 0.8%, without waiting for news from the East. We recommend shortening this paper only in exceptional cases.
Gazprom sank 0.7% due to concerns that the implementation of new eastern projects would require large capital expenditures and leave investors without dividends, which they should have gotten used to by now.
As we expected, the yuan-ruble pair pushed off from the lower boundary of the ascending channel and went up. The nearest resistance for the pair is located around 11.35.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
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