The next "attack" of the "bears" on 3000 may be successful

Alexey Antonov, ALOR BROKER 27 September 2023 11:37

The stock market started the day again yesterday with a decline, which was stopped by the mark of 3000 points on the MOSBIRZHI Index. Profit-taking on shorts and even speculative purchases of ferrous metallurgists and banks began here. 

The rebound of banks looks logical. Despite expectations of the collapse of the lending market due to high interest rates, banks have managed to form huge loan portfolios that will feed them for many months. And they will stop taking new loans.

With metallurgists, not everything is so clear. Expectations of an increase in demand for metal in China may well be offset by logistical problems in the eastern direction. In addition, this sector will fall under a new tax from October, depending on the dollar exchange rate. Finally, there are no glimpses of dividends from steelworkers.

The oil industry was traded worse than the market, although oil prices, which were declining at Asian auctions, subsequently moved to growth. The purchase of securities in the sector was hindered by the initiative of a number of deputies who proposed to extend the tax on excess profits to oil companies. It is extremely likely that the government will not allow such an amendment to be adopted. Oil companies already pay more to the treasury than others. The additional tax burden may force them to raise domestic fuel prices, which will cause a jump in inflation. Finally, practice has shown that the payment of excess income tax has not led to serious negative consequences for most companies.

This morning, oil costs $93.3 dollars per barrel, which is 0.8% more than at the close of the market on Tuesday. Thus, there are all prerequisites for the outstripping growth of oil sector stocks. Rosneft looks the most interesting here, which for no reason fell the most last week.

However, there is no reason to expect the formation of a new upward trend in the stock market. The short-term picture on the Moscow Stock Exchange Index is drawn at all "bearish" - since September 5, a descending channel has been clearly drawn on the daily chart. Yesterday, the indicator ended the day at its upper limit. Any negative will quickly send the market down, and the mark of 3000 points may not stand. In such a scenario, the lower boundary of the descending channel will not become a strong support, and the Moscow Exchange Index can quickly go to the area of 2930 points.

The ruble remains stable so far. Tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, due to the end of the tax period, we are waiting for the beginning of its moderate weakening.

Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER 

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