The Russian market has lost its geopolitical optimism and is preparing to end the week in the red

The external background on Friday morning can be called ambiguous. Sentiment abroad is mixed, and oil prices continue to try to rise higher amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Trading on the US stock exchanges ended yesterday with a decline of three major indexes within 0.4%, which retreated from the lows of the day, but still maintained a cautious attitude towards short-term supports (in particular, 6340 points for the S&P 500). Data released on Thursday showed an unexpected return of business activity in the US manufacturing sector to growth in August, with continued expansion in the services sector, which may serve as a reason for the longer-term maintenance of tight monetary conditions by the Fed.

Futures for the S&P 500 index are losing about 0.1% in the morning, remaining in a restrained correction mode ahead of today's speech by Fed Chairman Powell in Jackson Hole. Powell has continued to stick to harsh rhetoric on interest rates in recent months, despite his criticism from Trump.

Trading in Europe ended yesterday with a decline in the index Euro Stoxx 50 increased by 0.2%, which also regained some of its intraday losses, while waiting for significant movement drivers. At the same time, data released on Friday morning showed an unexpected decrease in German GDP in the second quarter by 0.3% yoy (forecast -0.1%) after an increase of 0.3% a quarter earlier: an alarming signal regarding the largest economy in the eurozone.

There has been a positive trend in trading in Asia since this morning. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose by less than 0.1% after data on a slowdown in the country's consumer inflation in July from 3.3% to 3.1% yoy, which, however, turned out to be higher than forecasts for an increase of 3%. The Australian ASX 200 declined 0.6%, correcting from a record peak. China's stock exchanges are rising by about 1.5%, expecting additional measures to stimulate the national economy. Hong Kong The Hang Seng is rising 0.5%, ending the week above the important short-term support of 25,100 points. 

Brent crude futures are adding less than 0.5% in the morning after jumping up by just over 1% the day before. Prices at the end of the week moved up from the mid-August range, limited by the levels of $65-$67, amid continued geopolitical tensions and risks of more limited oil supplies from Russia, including due to US pressure on India. In addition, preliminary estimates published the day before showed a return to growth in the manufacturing sector in the United States and the eurozone in August, which may portend higher demand for oil. The target for the growth of Brent quotations in a short-term bullish scenario may be the July maximum of $72.83.

The Moscow Exchange and RTS indices fell by 2% and 2.1%, respectively, following the results of the main session, falling to the supports of 2,860 points and 1,125 points (the average Bollinger bands of the daily charts). Overcoming these levels may portend a return of the indicators to the July lows of 2,616 points and 1,041 points, respectively. The nearest important resistances, meanwhile, are located at 2910 points and 1140 points.

The ruble against the yuan on the Moscow Stock Exchange weakened by 0.1% the day before, to 11.16 rubles, fluctuating in a narrow range of values during the week. The official exchange rates of the dollar and euro of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation amounted to 80.25 rubles and 93.50 rubles, respectively (against 80.10 rubles and 93.47 rubles on the previous business day), reflecting a slight weakening of the ruble against both currencies.

At the beginning of the main trading session, the Russian stock market is set for a restrained growth from the local lows reached, largely as part of the correction. This week, once again, the discrepancy between the positions of the Russian Federation and Ukraine on reaching a peace agreement became apparent, and at the moment there are no specifics regarding a possible meeting between Putin and Zelensky, which forces investors to fix the profits they have received on geopolitical optimism. Bank Saint Petersburg on Friday announced a recommendation for dividends on ordinary shares for the first half of this year in the amount of 16.61 rubles with a current yield of 4.5%, below the average expectations and indicators of previous years. The lender's profit under IFRS in the first half of the year amounted to 24.6 billion rubles against a profit of 24.3 billion rubles a year earlier.