The external background on Thursday morning can be described as moderately positive. Sentiment abroad improved, while oil prices moved to a downward correction after a rally in the first half of the week. Gold quotes returned above $4,400/oz.
Trading on the US stock exchanges ended yesterday with the growth of the three main indexes by about 0.5%. In the face of a correction in government bond yields from multi-year highs, the market was trying to regain positions lost in previous sessions, as well as hold important short-term supports, in particular, 7,630 points on the S&P 500 index. The ADP report before Friday's key labor market data showed an expansion of employment in the US private sector in August by 38 thousand against expectations of an increase of 47 thousand and an increase of 46 thousand a month earlier. The figures indicate a stable but not too strong state of the national labor market, which may deter the Fed from tightening its rhetoric in September.
Futures for the S&P 500 index are adding about 0.1% in the morning, maintaining restrained optimism ahead of the speech by Fed representative Waller during the day, as well as the final data on business activity in the country's services sector for August.
Trading on European stock exchanges ended yesterday with a decrease in the index Euro Stoxx 50 by 0.1%. In the middle of the week, amid the return of global risk aversion due to higher energy prices, as well as an increase in government bond yields, the indicator updated its minimum since the end of July, but regained a significant part of its positions amid improving sentiment in the United States. On Thursday, investors are likely to receive data on the acceleration of eurozone manufacturing inflation in July, as well as a mixed picture of activity in the region's service sectors in August.
There has been no consistent trend in trading in Asia since this morning. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.2%, remaining under pressure from the risks of tightening monetary conditions in the country after data on the acceleration of activity in the services sector in August. The Australian ASX 200 rose 0.5%. Chinese indices are adding within 0.5%. The RatingDog index of business activity in the Chinese services sector published on Thursday in August showed an acceleration in its growth rate, which contrasts with the PMI indicator, which previously indicated a reduction in activity. Hong Kong The Hang Seng is declining 0.2%, holding above the support of 25,200 points. The South Korean KOSPI is up 0.3%.
The nearest Brent crude futures are losing about 1.5% in the morning after rising by about 1% the day before. Quotes react, among other things, to the words of the American president about the prospect of an early end to attacks on Iran and entered correction mode after reaching $97.04/bbl on Wednesday, the highest since the end of July. At the same time, the report of the US Department of Energy showed a decrease in oil reserves in the country last week by 4.45 million barrels (expected -400 thousand) – a bullish signal for prices, especially after four weeks of growth. At the same time, the media reported that OPEC+ is likely to keep its oil production quotas unchanged at its meeting this Sunday.
The Moscow Exchange and RTS indices recovered a significant portion of intraday losses the day before, but still decreased by 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively, remaining below the psychologically important levels of 2,200 points and 800 points. The stabilization of indicators above the resistances of 2,190 points and 815 points (the average Bollinger bands of the daily charts) may portend a new round of short-term growth.
The ruble against the yuan on the Moscow Stock Exchange weakened by 0.4% the day before, to 12.98 rubles, updating the next minimum since February 2025 - 13 rubles. The official exchange rates of the dollar and euro of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation amounted to 86.99 rubles and 100.82 rubles, respectively (against 86.75 rubles and 100.59 rubles on the previous working day), reflecting a restrained decline in the ruble against both currencies.
At the beginning of the main trading session, the Russian stock market retains the basis for a return to growth and remains in search of new bullish drivers. The head of Sberbank on Thursday confirmed the prospect of paying record dividends by the lender by the end of 2026, and Gazprom announced that work was underway to realize gas supplies to China via the "Far Eastern" route in connection with the established schedule. During the day, investors will also evaluate the statements of the Russian president at the WEF plenary session. An important event for the foreign exchange market will be the publication of the volume of interventions by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for the coming month. At the same time, Novak announced a possible reduction in the cut–off price for oil for the budget rule to $50/bbl, a potential devaluation factor for the ruble.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital.
https://veles-capital.ru/analytics/article/rossiyskiy_rynok_ostaetsya_v_poiske_drayverov_rosta/
