The external background on Monday morning can be described as moderately positive. The mood abroad is mostly optimistic, and oil prices have reached their December high. The rally continues in the metal market amid global geopolitical tensions, and gold and silver quotes began the week by updating the next historical highs of $4,612 per ounce and $84.58 per ounce, respectively.
Trading on the US stock exchanges on Friday ended with the growth of the three main indexes within 0.8%, led by the high-tech Nasdaq. At the same time, the S&P 500 updated another historical high after data on an increase in employment in the US non-agricultural sector in December by only 50 thousand (+66 thousand was expected), following an increase of 56 thousand a month earlier. The figures confirm the high probability of further softening of the Fed's position over the course of the year, although in January the regulator is likely to pause the interest rate cut. At the beginning of 2026, American stocks generally remained strong, despite the US invasion of Venezuela, and reacted cautiously to geopolitical tensions, including due to continued interest in AI names. At the same time, the US dollar began to recover from local lows in the first trading days of the year.
Futures on the S&P 500 index are losing about 0.6% in the morning as part of the correction, as well as news about the criminal investigation against Fed Chairman Powell. This week in the United States, in addition to the geopolitical agenda and the continued risks of military action in new countries, participants will wait for the start of the quarterly reporting season, as well as the Supreme Court's decision on Trump's duties (January 14).
Trading on European stock exchanges on Friday ended with a 1.6% rise in the Euro Stoxx 50 index, which updated a record due to the continued optimistic global sentiment, as well as a rally by defense companies amid geopolitical tensions and Trump's interest in Greenland.
There has been a positive trend in trading in Asia since this morning. Japan's stock exchanges are closed for the weekend, and on Friday, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.6%. The Australian ASX 200 increased by 0.5%. China's indices are rising within 1.8%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is growing by 1.2%, approaching the medium-term bearish trend line and resistance of 26,600 points.
Brent crude futures are adding 0.5% in the morning after rising by more than 2% on Friday. Quotes approached the medium-term resistance and the December high of $64.10 per barrel against the backdrop of continued protests in Iran and the risks of worsening relations between the United States and the Islamic Republic, as well as other oil countries. At the same time, futures purchases are being held back by a possible return to the global oil market from Venezuela after the capture of its president and the potential lifting of US energy sanctions on the country. Another meeting of US oil companies with Trump is expected this week regarding their possible activities in Venezuela. At the same time, the American president stated that he wants to reduce oil prices to $50 per barrel.
The Moscow Exchange and RTS indices rose 0.2% on Friday following the results of the main session, generally starting the trading year under downward pressure. The indicators dropped to the short-term supports of 2,700 points and 1,090 points, respectively, overcoming which can accelerate sales.
The ruble against the yuan on the Moscow Stock Exchange on Friday strengthened by 0.8% to 11.22 rubles. At the beginning of the year, the yuan rose to the important short-term resistance of 11.45 rubles, from which it retreated lower. The official dollar and euro exchange rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the last working day of 2025 amounted to 78.22 rubles and 92.09 rubles, respectively (against 77.44 rubles and 91.47 rubles on the previous working day), reflecting the ruble's decline against both currencies. At the beginning of 2026, the dollar and euro showed restrained dynamics on Forex and are trading around 79 rubles and 92 rubles, respectively.
At the beginning of the main trading session, the Russian stock market is ready to develop a restrained increase and will receive support largely due to the continuation of the rally in the metals market amid global geopolitical tensions. Aluminum prices, in particular, have reached another peak since 2022 ($3,161 per ton), which at the beginning of the year contributes to the dynamics of RUSAL shares better than the market. At the same time, progress in the Ukrainian negotiations has stalled, and the United States seems to be shifting its attention to its own geopolitical agenda, which could delay reaching a peace agreement and limit purchases in Russian stocks. In addition, a vote will be held this week on a bill for new US sanctions against Russia. Shares of LUKOIL and Rosneft will open with dividend gaps on Monday.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital.
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