One of the reasons for the weakness of the market was oil falling for the fifth day in a row. This morning, the quotes are near the next support of $ 81 per barrel. Its breakdown can very short-term take oil to the area of $75-$78 per barrel, where the goal of exiting the "diverging triangle" figure is located.
But still, the main reason for investors' reluctance to actively buy is uncertainty about Friday's decisions of the Central Bank's board of directors. There is no doubt that the regulator will raise the "key", and it doesn't really matter by 1 or 2 percentage points. Further rhetoric will be more significant. We are afraid that the Central Bank will make it clear that the rate hike cycle is not over, and it will remain at a high level for a very long time, maybe until the middle of next year.
In such a situation, we still do not recommend making new purchases, except for some speculative point ideas supported by technical analysis. But still, it's better for speculators to get ready to get short. With the resumption of active sales, the mark of 2,900 points on the Moscow Stock Exchange Index this time may not stop the "bears".
One of the interesting events of today is the meeting of the MMK Board of Directors, at which a decision on interim dividends will be made. It is unlikely that the dividend yield will exceed 5%, which is not at all interesting in the current conditions. If the management decides to allocate less than 100% of the free cash flow to payments, then the paper will face a deep drawdown.
As expected, the ruble began to strengthen slightly. Paired with the yuan, the Russian currency demonstrates an attempt to exit downwards from the consolidation in which the pair has been since July 5. The ruble will support the approach of the peak of the tax period. Many exporters will prefer to reduce their foreign exchange reserves in order to settle with the budget, without touching super-profitable ruble deposits. In anticipation of Friday, there are hardly many people willing to buy foreign currency against the ruble. If the worst assumptions about the rigidity of the Central Bank's rhetoric are justified, the yuan-ruble pair may go down to the area of 11-11.3 in the short term.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
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