The external background on Monday morning can be called ambiguous. Oil prices are stable after falling on Friday, and sentiment on global stock markets has stabilized after last week's sales. The key news for the Russian market will be the permission of the United States and a number of other countries for Ukraine to carry out strikes deep into Russia.
Trading on the US stock exchanges on Friday ended with a decline in the three main indexes by 0.7-2.2%, led by the high-tech Nasdaq. The market was developing a downward correction from historical highs amid the risks of a tightening of the Fed's tone in the coming months, both in conditions of continued high inflation and the strength of the national economy. At the same time, the yield of 10-year "treasuries" remained slightly below 4.5%, deterring investors from even stronger sales.
Futures for the S&P 500 index are up about 0.3% in the morning. The indicator has reached short-term support of 5850 points (the average Bollinger band of the daily chart), stabilization below which may portend a return to 5670 points (the lower Bollinger band). This week, the market's special attention will be focused on Nvidia's quarterly results, which will be reported on Wednesday.
Trading in Europe on Friday ended with a decrease in the Euro Stoxx 50 index by 0.8%. The indicator continues to move in a narrow trading range, and last week it updated the minimum since mid-August against the background of economic and political uncertainty.
There is no uniform dynamics in trading in Asia. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1%. The Australian ASX 200 added 0.2%. Chinese indices are mostly losing within 2%, although Friday's data showed the stable growth rates of the country's main economic indicators in October. This week, the People's Bank of China will make a decision on the key rate for first-class borrowers. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is up 0.7%, but has retreated from the peak of the day and the resistance area of 19850 points, maintaining overall weakness.
The nearest futures for Brent and WTI crude oil are adding less than 0.5% in the morning after falling by about 2% on Friday. Quotes as a whole continue to move in a narrow short-term range and remain at a slight distance from the annual lows of $68.71 and $65.29, respectively, in anticipation of economic and geopolitical signals.
The Moscow Exchange and RTS indices rose 1.5% and 0.5% on Friday, respectively, retreating from the supports of 2,690 points and 855 points. Purchases in the market took place within the framework of a technical correction with the preservation of a medium-term downward trend.
The ruble against the yuan on the Moscow Exchange on Friday at the close of trading increased by 0.2%, reaching 13.69 rubles, during the day updating the minimum of the year 13.85 rubles with risks of movement to the area of 14 rubles. The official exchange rates of the dollar and euro of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation amounted to 99.99 rubles and 105.70 rubles, respectively (against 99.01 rubles and 104.50 rubles a day earlier) reflecting a weaker ruble.
At the beginning of the trading day, the Russian stock market will feel downward pressure from geopolitical news and will probably wait for the reaction of the authorities to the permission of the United States and other Western countries to carry out strikes deep into Russia. The geopolitical situation before the change of power in the United States has heated up again and may lead to an expansion of the conflict, but the Russian market has hopes for its improvement with the coming to power of Trump. At the same time, they continue to assess the prospects for the dynamics of interest rates, primarily in the United States, as well as the state of the Chinese economy.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital. https://veles-capital.ru/analytics/
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