The external background on Monday morning can be described as moderately positive. Sentiment abroad remains cautiously optimistic, while oil prices are feeling pressure from the easing of geopolitical tensions. The Russian market will play back the news about the meeting scheduled for August 15 between Putin and Trump in Alaska.
Trading on the US stock exchanges on Friday ended with the growth of the three main indexes by 0.5-1%, led by the high-tech Nasdaq, which updated another historical high due to purchases in IT issuers, including optimism about the development of artificial intelligence technologies and investments by companies (in particular, Apple) in the American economy. Investors were also hoping for the Fed to move to lower the key rate at the next meetings.
Futures for the S&P 500 index are adding about 0.1% in the morning. This week, data on consumer and manufacturing inflation will be published in the United States (possibly accelerating growth), which will affect the Fed's monetary policy plans.
Trading in Europe on Friday ended with a 0.3% increase in the Euro Stoxx 50 index, which was supported, among other things, by purchases in the United States, but continues to look less confident than the American stock exchanges.
A restrained positive trend prevails in trading in Asia in the morning. Japan's stock exchanges are closed for the weekend. The Australian ASX 200 increased by 0.4% in anticipation of an interest rate cut by the country's Reserve Bank this week. China's stock exchanges are growing within 1.5%, while the deadline for concluding a trade agreement between China and the United States expires tomorrow. At the weekend, data were published on the growth of Chinese consumer prices in July by 0.4% mom and their unchanged level compared to a year ago, above forecasts – a positive signal indicating a possible reversal of the deflationary trend in the country. This week, China is also waiting for a block of key macroeconomic data for July. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is adding about 0.1%, continuing to consolidate around 25,000 points.
Brent crude futures are down 0.5% in the morning after minor changes on Friday and a drop over the past week. Quotes are waiting for geopolitical news and, in particular, the planned talks between the leaders of the Russian Federation and the United States later this week, which, if successful, could reduce the risks of tougher energy sanctions against Russian oil and increase bearish risks for prices. This week, OPEC, the IEA and the US Department of Energy will publish their monthly reports.
The Moscow Exchange and RTS indices rose by 1.7% and 1.2% respectively on Friday following the results of the main session. The ruble indicator has risen to another peak since mid–May (2,926 points), and the dollar indicator has risen since early June (1,155 points). At the same time, in the Monday morning session, the Moscow Exchange index on geopolitical news exceeded 3,000 points with the nearest resistances of 3,010 points and 3,053 points (the maximum of April this year).
The ruble against the yuan on the Moscow Stock Exchange on Friday decreased by 0.8% to 11.07 rubles. The official exchange rates of the dollar and euro of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation amounted to 79.77 rubles and 92.88 rubles, respectively (against 79.38 rubles and 92.66 rubles on the previous business day), reflecting a restrained weakening of the ruble against both currencies.
At the beginning of the main trading session, the Russian stock market is ready to rally after Putin and Trump's decision to hold a face-to-face meeting to discuss the Ukrainian conflict on Friday, August 15, in Alaska. During the week, we can also expect negotiations between high-ranking officials from Europe and Ukraine, whose presence on Friday is currently not planned. Investors in the Russian Federation are thus ready to start the week with geopolitical hopes for possible progress in negotiations on a peace agreement, but it is worth remembering that the positions of the parties are still far away, and the very fact of negotiations does not guarantee their success. In the coming days, attempts by the Moscow Exchange index to gain a foothold above 3,000 points are possible, but volatility is likely to remain high and in the absence of positive signals, the indicator may return below this mark by the end of the week. On Wednesday, data on consumer inflation in the Russian Federation for July will be published, which will also affect expectations for the key rate.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital.
The "Comments" section of the AK&M news agency publishes materials submitted by Russian and foreign investment companies and banks. Their opinions may not coincide with the opinion of the editorial staff of the AK&M agency. The opinions presented in the comments are expressed taking into account the situation at the time of publication of the material. The comments are for informational purposes only; they do not constitute an offer or advice on the purchase or sale of securities. For questions about the placement of information in this section, please contact the agency's editorial office by phone (499) 132-61-30 ext. 0102.
