The Russian stock market yesterday tried to go into correction after the falling oil, but a significant part of the drawdown was redeemed. At the end of the day, the Moscow Stock Exchange Index fell by only 0.2%, which indicates the strength of the market.
Gazprom's sales continued. The paper is very much oversold in the short term, it is worth waiting for a rebound at any minute. Support on paper is located around 159 rubles, but the rebound may begin before reaching this level.
We still believe that the market is full of more interesting ideas than Gazprom. We believe that many people agree with us, so we do not expect a strong rebound in the stock. We are also sure that it is worth getting rid of the "Magnet" before clarifying the situation with the question of why the company's management did not meet the requirements of the Moscow Exchange for the entry of the paper into the first-level listing and why the company does not disclose the statements. Funds that, according to their investment declaration, cannot hold third-tier shares will continue to leave the paper. Technical analysis on the "Magnet" may not work now.
Yesterday, the best liquid paper was Yandex shares, which rose by 5.9%. The company said that it had seen offers to buy large blocks of its shares, but intends to leave control of the management. Of course, this can be interpreted as the fact that the process of dividing Yandex into Russian and foreign parts has accelerated. But while there are no details of the "divorce", the risks of medium-term purchases of paper are very high. In the coming days, Yandex may have a strong storm.
Yesterday, ferrous metallurgists jumped up on the words of Deputy Prime Minister, Head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation Denis Manturov, who said that by the end of the year steel production could grow by 4-5%. There is no certainty yet that the sector's securities have started a new uptrend.
In the morning, the external background is neutral. Oil has stabilized around $76 per barrel after yesterday's 2.8 percent drop, but this does not mean that it will not resume its decline. Support lies around $72, but somehow I don't want the quotes to test it.
Most likely, the tendency to reduce longs before the weekend will prevail during the day. But in the evening, speculatively minded "bulls" may become more active. The stock market usually grows strongly on Mondays, although this trend was broken on May 22. In general, we do not expect fundamental changes in the MOSBIRZHI Index today. But the ruble will again try to get out of the "triangle" down. The technical picture has turned out to be very good for the beginning of the strengthening of the ruble, but speculators do not yet dare to win it back by selling the dollar and yuan.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
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