The Russian stock market started the new year weakly, having lost 1.3% in the past trading days according to the Moscow Exchange Index. The reasons for this are the same – the deterioration of the geopolitical situation and weak hopes for an accelerated reduction in interest rates in the near future.
Today, with the opening of the main trading, the decline will continue due to the dividend gaps in Lukoil and Rosneft, as a result of which the market will test the strength of the strong support of 2,700 points.Domestic bulls will receive little support from the external background. So, against the background of the events in Iran and Venezuela, oil is currently trading in the resistance zone of $63.5-$64 per barrel. A stronger barrier lies around $65, and so far we do not see any drivers for its breakdown. Most likely, the rise in oil is short-term, so I don't want to buy shares in the oil industry at all.
Gold has updated its historical high this morning, but is in no hurry to build on its success. Platinum and palladium are becoming more expensive, which in recent months have increased their correlation with gold due to the fact that these "white metals" have become more used for investment purposes. It makes sense for risky investors to think about speculative purchases of Polyus and Norilsk Nickel in order to catch a couple of percent. In the medium term, these securities should continue to be held, pushing the stops higher due to the risks of correction in overheated precious metals.
On the foreign exchange market in the early days of the new year, there were attempts by the yuan-ruble pair to storm the strong resistance of 11.4, but the barrier stood. Fundamentally, we continue to view the Russian currency negatively. However, in the coming days, large volumes of dollars and yuan may enter the market, earned but not yet sold by exporters in the last 2 weeks.
Igor Sokolov, analyst at ALOR BROKER.
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