The Moscow Exchange index ended Friday's trading with a moderate increase, returning just above 2,900 points on the back of news from the United States, which allowed for a slight improvement in geopolitical expectations. However, trading activity on the Moscow Stock Exchange remained extremely low (the volume of stock trading fell to below 43 billion rubles, which is the minimum this year, except for the weekend session) - the market remained awaiting significant introductory reports on geopolitics.
The shares of oil companies led by Rosneft (+2.2%) and Tatneft (+1.4%) looked better among the key "chips". We also note the growth of MTS shares (+1.1%), the strength of demand for the leaders of Tsvetmet (Norilsk Nickel: +1%; Polyus: +0.7%), which keep their stock prices at local peaks, and TMK shares (+3.5%), which continue to rally on expectations of the launch of new pipeline projects in China. Among other securities, we will highlight a good rebound in Sovcomflot (+2.2%) and the development of the recovery of Aeroflot securities (+0.9%), as well as the renewal of peaks in Lenta shares (+1.7%), which remains very interesting from a fundamental point of view due to the good business development potential. Our estimate of the fair value of Lenta's shares over a 12-month horizon is 2,250 rubles per share. However, technically, these securities look somewhat overheated, which makes us look at them more cautiously locally. We assume that demand will cool down after reaching the range of 1940-1980 rubles, but we do not see a reason for a strong pullback.
The outsiders of Friday's trading are DVMP (-4.5%), Delimobil (-4.1%) and Rushydro (-3.1%).
Today we are waiting for attempts to develop the growth of the Moscow Exchange index. Today we see the target range of 2900-2950 points: although concerns about sanctions will continue to weigh down the market, restraining trading activity, at the moment the sanctions threat looks difficult to implement, and therefore may fade into the background, which will allow investors to start playing back expectations for a key rate cut this Friday.
Evgeny Loktyukhov, Head of the Department of Economic and Industry Analysis, PSB
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