The new week in the stock market began with a serious sell-off. By the end of Monday, the Moscow Stock Exchange Index 2 fell by 1.6%. This can be explained by the increased negative rhetoric against Russia from overseas, including talks about the US readiness to resume military assistance to Ukraine, Europe's continued intentions to impose tough sanctions, and Russia's difficult relations with its neighboring state. Nevertheless, the main reason for investors' reluctance to buy shares lies in the expectations of a decline in the economy and profits of the vast majority of issuers. Due to the high key interest rate, bonds now potentially look as good as stocks in terms of yield, and much more attractive in terms of risk.
The weakest companies, such as Aeroplane, PIK, and Gazprom, naturally turned out to be the outsiders of the day, losing just over 3%. MTS shares fell by 14%, but they had a dividend gap. We do not recommend trying to buy it back – the paper has failed to close the dividend gaps of the past two years. We look at the communications industry as a whole negatively, because due to the saturation of the market, companies in the sector have nowhere to develop.Today is the last day with X 5 dividends, the dividend yield is about 19%. We are waiting for the high volatility of this paper, but at the same time we can take risks in it and receive dividends.
Trading started today with a continued decline, but not yet at such a strong pace as yesterday. The market is currently testing the strength of the strong support of 2,750 points. It is highly likely that it will not be able to resist, including because of the dividend gaps. Therefore, we are waiting for the Moscow Exchange Index to go below the 2,700 point mark, where it is worth thinking about purchases. For long, shares of banks are still the most attractive, and speculatively, those of developers and the most heavily leveraged companies.
The ruble stopped trying to decline slightly yesterday and rose against the yuan by a percentage. Probably, one of the major exporters sold the foreign exchange earnings, perhaps just to pay dividends. Speculators joined the downward movement for the pair, which had unsuccessfully tested the 11 resistance for two days before. Yesterday, the pair ended the day in the area of strong support at 10.8-10.9. Its future fate will be determined by the actions of major currency sellers.
In general, the medium-term sideways trend in the ruble continues, and the exit from it should be strong.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting ALOR BROKER
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