Over the past holidays and weekends, purchases dominated the Russian stock market. Fears of some extraordinary events during the Victory Day celebrations did not materialize, there was a faint hope for an improvement in the situation around Ukraine, which investors won back with growth.
On Monday morning, taking into account weekend trading, the market is growing by 2.5%, the Moscow Exchange index is trading above 2900. Thus, the resistance has been overcome, which, however, was repeatedly traded earlier, and now the goal of the movement is the 3,000-point mark. However, we believe that it will not be possible to gain a foothold above it until there are more or less realistic prerequisites for resolving the Ukrainian issue. Therefore, making new investment purchases is very risky.There are obvious improvements on the outer contour. The most significant increase for ruble assets is the rise in oil prices, which is approaching $65 per barrel this morning. This is where the progress in the US-China trade negotiations, which both sides have been talking about in recent days, plays out. However, no specifics were disclosed. If an agreement can be reached, then we can hope for a not very strong slowdown in the global economy. However, we do not rule out the withdrawal of oil to the region of $ 55 if there are negative reasons.
Gazprom and NOVATEK shares have been trading better than the market in recent days. Expectations about a possible increase in purchases of Russian gas from China are being played out here. In addition, rumors are spreading in the Western media about the readiness of the United States to restore Russian gas supplies to Europe. But even here, growth is based only on positive forecasts, not on facts.
The rise in shares of a number of developers still has no fundamental basis, and we still recommend using them only for speculative trading in both directions.
The foreign exchange market is also calm. We do not rule out an increase in the inflow of dollars and yuan into the country in the coming days, since with the increase in market liquidity, exporters will intensively sell the currency earned over the long weekend. Technically, the sideways trend in the yuan-ruble pair, which has been observed since mid-April, remains in force in the range of 11-11.5. It is still worth speculatively trading in it.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
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