The volume of the M&A market with a threshold of $1 million in the first half of 2025 decreased compared to the result of the same period last year. The total value of transactions in the six reporting months decreased by 12.3%, amounting to $18.67 billion against $21.29 billion a year earlier. This is stated in the bulletin "Market of Mergers and Acquisitions" of the AK&M News Agency (issue No. 328).
The number of transactions also decreased: 201 transactions took place in the reporting period, compared with 219 (-8.2%) a year earlier. In ruble terms, the amount of transactions in the first half of the year decreased by 18.7% to 1.554 trillion rubles from 1.912 trillion rubles.
However, the price of realizable assets increased: the average transaction cost, excluding the largest, increased by 32.7% to $68.4 million from $51.6 million (excluding the largest) in the same period of 2024.
At the same time, in June 2025, AK&M analysts noted 43 transactions with a total value of $3.36 billion, which is 23.2% higher than the total of June 2024 (49 transactions worth $2.73 billion).
One of the negative factors affecting the M&A market in the first half of the year was the Bank of Russia's ultra-high key interest rate of 21% per annum. The high cost of borrowing hindered asset purchases. After reducing the rate to 20%, and then to 18%, we do not expect a revival of transactions concluded with the attraction of credit funds.
Four major transactions worth more than $1 billion were recorded during the period. The largest of these was a transaction in financial institutions — businessmen Mikhail Fridman and Peter Aven sold their stake in Alfa-Bank, in which they owned 45%, to partner Andrey Kosogov. The value of the transaction was $1.75 billion. Their assets took the third place in terms of volume for the quarter — in addition to the bank, M.Friedman and P.Aven sold A.Kosogov and the AlfaStrakhovanie insurance group for $609.8 million.
The second largest billion—dollar transaction took place in services - this is the April purchase by the structures of Rosselkhoznadzor of 50% of the largest Russian classifieds Avito for an estimated $1226.1 million.
The third and fourth places were taken by the nationalization of assets by court decision. This is the nationalization that took place in the chemical and petrochemical industries — the court decided to withdraw Sayanskkhimplast JSC and a number of related companies, estimated at a total of $1175.3 million, to the state's income.
The fourth place was taken by the nationalization of transport, which was completed back in 2023, but at that time the methodology for evaluating transactions did not include it. This is the nationalization of the FESCO group (the parent company is PJSC Far Eastern Shipping Company, DVMP) by a court decision in the interests of the Rosatom Group. The total damage to the state from the owners of FESCO was estimated at $1039.6 million.
The trend towards forced nationalization of private companies continues. In the first half of the year, AK&M analysts noted 10 such transactions with a total value of $3.95 billion, which is 21.2% of the total value of transactions in the first half of the year. This applies only to those nationalizations where the court determined the value of the damage that the former owner of the asset is paying off to the state.
Separately, it is worth mentioning the trend towards asset sales in precision engineering. Transactions with such assets became the most expensive in the industry and took the highest share in terms of number in the first half of the year. This indicates an interest in companies that can simultaneously ensure import substitution of the technical base, reduce critical dependence on China and comply with legal requirements.
AK&M analysts believe that state-owned companies and companies in the defense industry will continue to be interested in engineering startups and buy them out at an early stage of development, including through venture funds.
We can also note the revival of cross-border transactions. Thus, purchases of foreign assets by Russian investors have increased. The volume of such transactions increased by 14.8% compared to the result of January-June 2024, the number doubled.
Thus, the trend for acquisitions in friendly countries, which was predicted earlier, is gaining momentum, especially in metallurgy and mining.
As for the acquisitions of Russian companies by foreigners, the majority of such transactions in the current period turned out to be related to the purchase of assets directly in Russia, whereas last year foreigners mainly acquired foreign assets of Russians.
Transactions that are classified as domestic according to the AK&M methodology (when the asset is located in Russia and the buyer is a Russian resident), but the seller is a foreign investor, remain isolated.
In January-June 2025, only 10 out of 201 such transactions were recorded (5% of the total), their volume amounted to $505.8 million (2.7%). For comparison, the share of such transactions in terms of number in the first half of 2024 was 15.5%, and in terms of volume — 8.8%.
In the first half of 2025, companies from France, Germany, the USA, Austria, the Netherlands, Israel, Ukraine and Finland left the Russian market.
Read more about the results of the M&A market in issue No. 328 of the monthly bulletin "Mergers and Acquisitions Market" of the AK&M News Agency. Subscribers of the newsletter have been provided with a complete database of M&A transactions with Russian assets for free since 2012. You can subscribe to the newsletter at the agency's office by sending an application to ma@akm.ru and through the Ural Press subscription agency (subscription index - 011670).
All the agency's newsletters and the database of deals can be found in the AK&M Analytical Newsletters and Research Store.
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