The market for commercial M&A transactions is shrinking amid an increase in the number of state-owned transactions. This is stated in the bulletin "Market of Mergers and Acquisitions" of the AK&M News Agency (issue No. 334).
In 2025, the M&A market with a threshold of $1 million decreased compared to the previous year. The total value of transactions decreased by 24.6%, amounting to $41.12 billion against $54.52 billion a year earlier, their number decreased by 20% to 399 from 498 transactions. In ruble terms, the amount of transactions fell much more noticeably — by 35% to 3.341 trillion rubles from 5.14 trillion rubles in 2024. This is due to the strengthening of the ruble in 2025.
At the same time, assets increased slightly in value. The average transaction value, excluding the largest, increased by 14.9% year-on-year to $67.9 million from $59.1 million (excluding the largest) in 2024.
If earlier AK&M analysts noted the active participation of the ZPIF in M&A transactions, then in 2025 this trend has come to naught. The reason lies in the fact that such transactions were most often not market-based, but were carried out within holdings and were aimed at optimizing the ownership structure or concealing the participation of certain shareholders.
Another trend from last year, the nationalization of assets by court order, gained significant momentum. Over the past year, 8 transactions worth more than $1 billion have been recorded, and the largest of them was nationalization, which is a record for the Agriculture and Fisheries, fish farming industry.
So, in March, the Federal Property Management Agency received the assets of Oleg Kan's crab king, and the assets were estimated at $4286.6 million for the court.
The second transaction is also related to the nationalization of assets and took place in the mining industry. It ended back in July, but the court proceedings dragged on until October. Thus, the court seized 67.85% of the Yuzhuralzoloto group of companies from billionaire Konstantin Strukov for state revenue, the damage was estimated by the court at $1991.8 million.
The third largest transaction was a commercial one, which took place in the information technology (IT) industry and involved the sale of a large IT company with Russian roots. For example, Adobe bought Semrush, a company founded by Russians in St. Petersburg, but relocated to the United States in 2021, for $1.9 billion.
In fourth place was a transaction in the financial institutions sector: businessmen Mikhail Fridman and Peter Aven sold their stake in Alfa-Bank, in which they owned 45%, to partner Andrey Kosogov. The value of the transaction was $1.75 billion.
The fifth place was taken by a deal in services — this is the April purchase by the structures of Rosselkhoznadzor of 50% of the largest Russian classifieds Avito for an estimated $1226.1 million.
The underlying volume of the M&A market (excluding the largest transactions worth $1 billion and above) decreased relative to 2024. In 2025, it amounted to $26.55 billion, which is 8.1% less than in the previous year. This is mainly due to a drop in the number and value of commercial transactions. In ruble terms, the base market volume decreased due to the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate by 20.4% to 2.18 trillion rubles.
In 2025, the number of exit transactions from the Russian market for foreign businesses subject to international sanctions has significantly decreased. If in 2022-2024 the departure of foreigners turned out to be the main driver of the growth in the number of M&A transactions in the Russian market, then this year they do not have a serious impact on the overall statistics.
Read more about the results of the M&A market in issue No. 334 of the monthly bulletin "Market of Mergers and Acquisitions" of the AK&M News Agency. Subscribers of the newsletter have been provided with a complete database of M&A transactions with Russian assets for free since 2012. You can subscribe to the newsletter at the agency's office by sending an application to ma@akm.ru and through the Ural Press subscription agency (subscription index - 011670).
All the agency's newsletters and the database of deals can be found in the AK&M Analytical Newsletters and Research Store.
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