Russia's GDP growth may increase by 1-2% in 2025, by 0.5–1.5% in 2026, and by 1.5–2.5% in 2027. This is reported in the medium-term forecast of the Bank of Russia.
The upward deviation of the Russian economy from the balanced growth trajectory remains significant. High domestic demand is supported by rising household incomes and budget expenditures. At the same time, operational data and surveys of enterprises indicate that in the first quarter of 2025, the growth of economic activity slowed down compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, according to a press release from the Central Bank following a meeting of the board of directors, at which the regulator left unchanged the key rate of 21% per annum.
The labor market remains tough for now. Unemployment is at historic lows. However, according to surveys, the share of enterprises experiencing staff shortages is gradually decreasing in many regions. In addition, there is a decrease in demand for labor in certain industries and its flow to other sectors. Wage growth remains high and continues to outpace productivity growth, the regulator notes.
